2025-05-19-Jefferies-2025年4月中国零售销售_13页_356kb

报告摘要

April 2025 retail sales increased 5.1% YoY, exceeding consensus estimates by 0.4 percentage points, driven by strong performance in food (+14% YoY) and home appliances categories (+38.8% YoY) due to trade-in subsidies.
Overall resilience despite macro uncertainties, supported by Labor Day holiday performance (6.3% YoY growth for key enterprises) and catalysts like the 618 online event and upcoming Dragon Boat Festival.
Marginal benefit expected from the 90-day tariff pause, potentially easing pressure on May retail sales.

Positive: Food (dining-in shift), home appliances (subsidy impact), communication equipment (+19.9% YoY).
Negative: Petrol (-5.7% YoY), auto (+0.7% YoY), apparel (+2.2% YoY).
Online retail sales rose 7.1% YoY, accounting for 25.1% of total retail sales.

618 online shopping event (started early) and offline Dragon Boat Festival expected to influence growth.

Buy: Moutai (600519 CH), YUMC (Yum China), Midea (000333 CH), Tingyi (322 HK), CRB (291 HK), Mengniu (2319 HK), Roborock (688169 CH), Pop Mart (9992 HK), Eastroc (605499 CH), DPC (1405 HK). These are fast-growing names with strong potential and minimal tariff impact.
Hold/Underperform: Yonghui Superstores, Gree, Great Star, Robam, Wuliangye, Yue Yuen due to valuation risks or underperformance potential. Detailed ratings provided in the report.

All views reflect personal analysis of analysts and are based on fundamental research, with no compensation tied to recommendations. Analysts are based in Jefferies Hong Kong and subject to specific regulations. Report excludes detailed disclosure information for brevity.

Retail sales comparisons include designated-scale enterprises vs. overall; online vs. offline segments show divergence.
Macroeconomic risks and currency fluctuations could affect results; tariff relaxations are ongoing.

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