2021-11-22-瑞士信贷集团-台湾地区_RF和VCSEL含量的增加促进了复合半导体的增长_21页_1mb

Summary of Document Content

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the growth prospects for the Taiwan compound semiconductor sector, particularly focusing on RF and VCSEL (Vertical-Cavity Surface-Emitting Laser) technologies. It highlights how 5G proliferation, Wi-Fi 6E adoption, and increased share gains for fabless RF makers are driving demand for compound semiconductors in the smartphone and IoT markets.

The Credit Suisse Asia Tech Team has revised smartphone shipment forecasts for 2021–2023, projecting 6.6% YoY growth in 2022E and 4.0% YoY growth in 2023E, with 5G penetration increasing to 49% in 2022E and 60% in 2023E. These trends are expected to positively impact the RF supply chain, especially in Taiwan, due to increased content and share gains.

Main Points

• RF demand is rising: 5G RF PA consumes ~30% more wafer area than 4G, and the adoption of Wi-Fi 6E adds a new 6 GHz band, increasing RF content and demand.
• Fabless RF makers are gaining share: Qualcomm and Chinese fabless players are taking market share from traditional IDMs, especially in Android supply chains, due to bundle selling strategies and localisation trends.
• iPhone RFFE allocation changes: Qorvo has gained a new socket for 5G UHB RFFE in the iPhone 13 and Pro Max, while Broadcom may gain a new socket in the iPhone SE upgrade and iPhone 14.
• Win Semi and VPEC are top picks:
  • Win Semi benefits from being the sole foundry partner for Broadcom and having higher allocation at Qualcomm and Vanchip.
  • VPEC benefits from diversified customer mix, increasing content and margin in 5G RF epiwafers, and its automotive LiDAR business entering a stable growth phase.
• VCSEL content growth: Apple is integrating flood illuminator and dot projector into a single VCSEL for Face ID in the iPhone 13, reducing wafer area consumption by ~40%. There is potential for additional VCSEL content in iPhone 14 for proximity and gesture sensing, which could lead to incremental growth for VCSEL makers.
• Chipbond remains neutral: Its RF backend business (~10% of sales) is expected to benefit from outsourcing trends and shift from wire-bonding to bumping, but softer DDI backend sales due to share loss may cap its upside in the short term.

Key Information

• Market Trends:
  • 5G proliferation is still in early stages, with penetration expected to rise.
  • Wi-Fi 6E is expected to take off in 2022E, with 6 GHz band adoption in several countries.
  • China is strategically preparing for Wi-Fi 6E and Wi-Fi 7, even though it hasn’t adopted it yet.
• Supply Chain Dynamics:
  • Qorvo is now a supplier for 5G UHB RFFE in iPhone 13 and Pro Max, benefiting VPEC.
  • Qualcomm is gaining share in the Chinese Android market, which is positive for Win Semi and VPEC.
  • VPEC is also working with Chinese compound semi foundries, offering new revenue streams.
• Stock Recommendations:
  • Win Semi is the top pick for the compound semi sector due to its strong position in iPhone RFFE and VCSEL.
  • VPEC is recommended for its diversified customer base and growing 5G RF epiwafer business.
  • Chipbond is NEUTRAL due to softer DDI sales.
• Growth Drivers:
  • 5G proliferation and Wi-Fi 6E adoption are the primary growth drivers.
  • Bundle selling and China localisation are supporting fabless RF makers.
  • New VCSEL designs (including iToF and multi-junction VCSELs) are expected to enhance performance and drive content growth.
• Forecast Adjustments:
  • Win Semi is expected to see sales growth of 13–16% YoY in 2022 and 2023, with gross margin improvements.
  • VPEC is expected to benefit from increased content and margin in 5G RF epiwafers.
  • Target prices are raised for Win Semi to NT$425 and for VPEC to NT$168, based on P/E multiples.

Conclusion

The Taiwan compound semiconductor sector is well-positioned for growth in 2022–2023, driven by 5G expansion, Wi-Fi 6E adoption, and increased share gains for fabless RF makers. Win Semi and VPEC are highlighted as the top performers due to their strong customer relationships, diversified portfolios, and technological leadership. The VCSEL market is also expected to expand with new applications in iPhone 14 and MR devices, while Chipbond faces short-term challenges due to DDI share loss.