20240321-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_5页_798kb

Fixed Income Market Summary - 21 March 2024

1. Market Sentiment and Trading Activity

   • Asian IG benchmarks tightened 1-2bps amid profit-taking on tech names (BABA/TENCENT). High-beta IGs, Bank T2s, AT1s, and LGFVs showed active two-way trading.
   • European AT1s remained stable, with Netherlands' exploratory report on AT1 abolition unlikely to impact markets short-term.
   • Roadking Group (ROADKG) reported weak FY23 results, with revenue down 23.8% and net loss widening to HKD3.8bn due to sluggish real estate performance.

2. Securities Highlights

   • AT1s: BACR6⅛PERP and INTNEDAT1s are top picks. Dutch exploration of AT1 reforms is expected to have minimal near-term effect.
   • LGFVs: CPDEV saw decent inflows, while SOEs like COFCHK and HUADIA showed net sales/redemption variations.
   • Performance Metrics: First National Bank (South Africa) and Bank of New York Mellon AT1s remained under strong selling pressure.

3. Macro News Recap

   • US Fed maintained interest rate at 5.25%-5.50%, US indices (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq) reached new highs, while UST yields retreated (2s, 5s, 10s reached 4.59%, 4.25–4.45%).

4. Refinancing Risks

   • Roadking faces high refinancing pressure despite demonstrating strong repayment willingness.
   • Other entities (e.g. Vedanta Resources, MGM China) reduced debt or restructured repayment terms.

5. Key Risks

   • Potential regulatory shifts in the Eurozone on AT1s and capital requirements.
   • Macroeconomic factors may continue to pressure corporate bonds in high-debt sectors.