2025-05-28-Jefferies-智利矿业化工（SQM）_强劲的碘部门业绩推动2025年第一季度EBITDA超预期_7页_185kb

SQM Equity Research Summary: 1Q25 Results and Outlook

Key Highlights

• SQM reported strong 1Q25 adjusted EBITDA of US$360m, a 10% quarter-over-quarter increase and about 6% above FactSet consensus. Performance driven by solid Iodine division growth (gross profits +25% QoQ, accounting for ~46% of total) and a 26% jump in lithium sales volumes, partially offset by pricing pressures.
• Adjusted net income was US$138m, slightly below expectations due to higher taxes. Lithium realized prices averaged US$9.1k/ton, down 27% year-over-year.

Financial Details

• Iodine division contributed significantly to EBITDA growth with 25% higher gross profits.
• Lithium segment saw volume growth but faced price declines; Chilean operations' prices had a small premium over international assets.
• Liabilities to debt (ND/EBITDA) at 2.1x LTM, unchanged structurally.

Outlook and Events

• Management expects lower lithium prices in Q2 2025 amid global market volatility, driven by project restart announcements and ongoing Congreso investigation into SQM's agreement with Codelco for Salar de Atacama.
• Focus on lithium market outlook, with potential for price stability in iodine if pricing remains elevated.

Valuation

• Jefferies retains a BUY rating with a US$55.00 price target, representing a ~68% upside from the prior close. price target history shows a recent shift from HOld to BUY.
• Valuation based on 10.8x 2026E EBITDA; risks include lithium contract volatility and pricing uncertainties.

Risk Factors

• Key risks: Length of lithium contracts, price volatility; regulatory and market uncertainties from the Codelco investigation and global lithium price trends.