2025-06-16-高盛-哥伦比亚_财政指导证实了对更大赤字的预期；无前期大幅削减支出计划；2026年存在下行风险_7页_241kb

Overview: The Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) confirms wider government deficits due to challenging economic conditions, suspending the fiscal rule for three years until July 2025. Deficits for 2025 and 2026 are significantly higher than initially projected, reflecting weaker revenues and rising spending, with consolidation planned backloaded starting in 2027.

Deficit Targets:

• 2025 overall deficit at 7.1% of GDP (up from 5.2%).
• 2025 primary deficit at 2.4% of GDP (up 2.2 points), due to a 1.4-point revenue reduction and 0.9-point primary spending increase.
• 2026 overall deficit at 6.2% of GDP (up from 4.3%).
• Forecast overall deficits: 7.3% for 2025 and 6.6% for 2026, indicating elevated fiscal strain.

Fiscal Consolidation and Structural Changes:

• Fiscal rule invoked under an escape clause, allowing temporary deviations from structural balances starting July 2025.
• Primary surpluses not expected until after 2028, with "inflexible" (structural) spending cuts targeted from 2027.
• No upfront spending cuts were implemented; consolidation is delayed, potentially masking risks of future deficits.

Tax Reform and Revenue:

• A new tax reform expected to generate 1.1% of GDP in revenue, but faces legislative obstacles and the upcoming election period.
• Revenue projections for 2025 are down, partly due to expected corporate tax withholding revenues and budgetary arrears.

Debt and Economic Risks:

• Net debt rising to 61.3% of GDP in 2025 (from 59.0%), moving away from the long-term anchor of 55% and closer to the 71% upper limit.
• Upward debt trajectory increases risk of Moody’s credit downgrade later this month, with moderate upside risk to deficit forecasts.
• Government financing needs increased in 2025, shifting toward domestic issuance, with modest consolidation in 2026.

Analysis Summary: The updated guidance shows the government's reluctance to curtail discretionary spending, embedding asymmetric risks with potential revenue shortfalls and limited spending flexibility. Downside risks include further deficit widening and higher debt levels if economic conditions persist.