2025-06-05-Bernstein-巴西啤酒_4月酒精产量恢复增长（同比增长2.7_）_17页_804kb

Date Filed: June 5, 2025

Focus Region: Americas Alcoholic Beverages, with emphasis on Brazil and Beer

Key Economic Data: Brazil's beer alcohol production increased by +2.7% YoY in April 2025, the first monthly growth since August 2024. Sequential improvement was noted from February (-6.4%) and March (-1.7%). Three-month trailing growth was -2.1% YoY, improved from initial year performance. Cooler average temperatures compared to the previous year in April and May are noted as a potential contributing factor.

Market Share: Beer constitutes ~65% of Brazil's alcohol volume but 77% of its value, due to the lower price point of Cachaça, a popular distilled spirit.

Valuation & Investment Implications:

• Ambev (ABEV): Valued using P/E NTM+1 at a target multiple of 14.1x, price target of BRL 16.0. Rated "Outperform".
• ABI (AB InBev): Valued using P/E NTM+1 at 19.8x, price target of EUR 79.0 for ABI.BB. Rated "Outperform".
• Heineken (HEIO.NA): Valued using P/E NTM+1 at 18.8x, price target of EUR 113.0. Rated "Outperform".

Risk Factors: Potential downside includes GDP weakening in key markets (Ambev), BRL devaluation (Ambev), commodity price rises (Ambev, AB InBev), aggressive competition (AB InBev), consumer environment difficulties (Heineken), three-tier distribution breakdown (Heineken), foreign exchange volatility ($, Naira, etc.), and Heineken's margin guidance risks.