20200219-天灏资本-Cautious_On_1H2020_Due_To_Negative_Impacts_From_Outbreak_Of_Coronavirus_6页_699kb

ZTO Express Summary

核心内容

ZTO Express is a leading express delivery company that faced challenges in the first quarter of 2020 due to the outbreak of the coronavirus. The company's performance in the fourth quarter of 2019 was in line with its full year guidance, but the outlook for the first quarter of 2020 was not optimistic due to the negative impacts of the outbreak on the express delivery market.

主要观点

• 1Q20 Impact: The coronavirus outbreak significantly affected ZTO's operations, leading to delayed branch openings and reduced workforce participation. Only 50% of the express delivery workforce had returned to work by early February 2020, which negatively impacted revenue growth and margin performance.

• 4Q19 Performance: ZTO's parcel volume growth in 4Q19 was 37.7% year-over-year (YoY), slightly lower than the 45.9% growth in 3Q19, but still within the full year guidance of 35%-40% YoY growth. Revenue was expected to be in line with consensus at RMB6,970 million, with a 23.9% YoY growth.

• ASP Trends: In 4Q19, the average revenue per parcel (ASP) showed a decrease in intra-city and inter-city deliveries but an increase in international deliveries.

• Fuel Price: The average price of gasoline decreased by 16.3% YoY and 3.6% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in 4Q19, which may have helped reduce operating costs.

• Peer Comparison: In 4Q19, the average growth rates for all top vendors were lower than in previous quarters, indicating a sector-wide slowdown.

关键信息

• Parcel Volume Growth:

  • 4Q19: 37.7% YoY to 3,738M
  • Full year 2019: 35%-40% YoY growth
  • 1Q20: Expected to be slower due to the outbreak

• Revenue:

  • 4Q19: RMB6,970 million (23.9% YoY growth)
  • 1Q20: Expected to be in line with consensus

• Fuel Price:

  • 4Q19: Down 16.3% YoY and 3.6% QoY

• ASP Trends:

  • Intra-city and inter-city: Decreased QoQ
  • International: Increased QoQ

• Peer Comparison:

  • All top vendors: Lower YoY growth than previous quarters

财务表现

• 收入：2019年全年收入预计为222.23亿人民币，2020年全年收入预计为275.91亿人民币，同比增长约24.1%。
• 净利润：2019年全年净利润预计为4.90亿人民币，2020年全年净利润预计为4.84亿人民币。
• 非GAAP净利润：2019年全年非GAAP净利润预计为5.59亿人民币，2020年全年非GAAP净利润预计为6.36亿人民币。
• 调整后EBITDA：2019年全年调整后EBITDA预计为7.39亿人民币，2020年全年调整后EBITDA预计为8.51亿人民币。

毛利率与费用

• 毛利率：2019年全年毛利率预计为29.5%，2020年全年毛利率预计为27.7%。
• 总运营费用：2019年全年总运营费用预计为11.88亿人民币，2020年全年总运营费用预计为2.22亿人民币。
• 运营利润率：2019年全年运营利润率预计为24.1%，2020年全年运营利润率预计为19.6%。

股东收益与市场数据

• 每股收益（EPS）：2019年全年每股收益预计为6.63元，2020年全年每股收益预计为7.41元。
• 非GAAP每股收益：2019年全年非GAAP每股收益预计为6.63元，2020年全年非GAAP每股收益预计为9.06元。
• 市盈率（P/E）：2019年为26.3倍，2020年预计为23.5倍。
• 市值：2020年为199亿元人民币。
• 平均每日成交量：2020年100天平均为2,288,575股。

总结

ZTO Express experienced a slowdown in the first quarter of 2020 due to the coronavirus outbreak, which significantly impacted the express delivery market. Despite this, its performance in 4Q19 was in line with expectations, and the company maintained a cautious outlook for the remainder of the year. The financial performance showed a decrease in revenue growth and margin pressure due to the reduced workforce and operational challenges, but there were some positive trends in fuel prices and international deliveries. The company's financial model and forecasts were adjusted to reflect the ongoing impact of the outbreak.