20231227-天风证券-港股周报_网络游戏管理新规征求意见_官方最新回应将听取意见修改完善_继续看好港股修复潜力_8页_823kb

Http://Please analyze the following content and provide a summary: 海外行业报告|Industry Dynamic Research. Note: Please read the full report including disclosures and disclaimers.

Summary of Hong Kong Stock Market Report (2023 Q4)

This summary covers the key points from the Hong Kong stock market update report for the week of 2023-12-18 to 2023-12-22. The report highlights market performance, domestic and international factors, policy changes, company developments, investment outlooks, and risks.

Market Performance

• Hong Kong indexes saw significant declines: the Hang Seng Index dropped approximately 26.9%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index fell by 37.1%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a steep decline of 61.5%.
• Southbound funds net inflows reached about 13.2 billion yuan, supporting market sentiment.
• The US dollar index decreased, while the renminbi appreciates, with onshore and offshore USD/RMB rates closing at 7.1410 and 7.1483, respectively on Friday.

Valuation Levels

• Hong Kong stocks are currently undervalued, with the Hang Seng Index front-loaded PE ratio 27 standard deviations below the 2013 median, placing it at a historical percentile of around 0.3%. This offers potential for recovery in the low-valuation environment.

Domestic Factors

• Economic policies were reinforced with big banks like ICBC and ABC reducing deposit rates for three-year fixed deposits to below 2%, signaling fiscal stimulus amid an end-of-year meeting's emphasis on boosting growth.
• Strong consumer data was released: November retail sales volumes grew by 10.1% year-on-year, with online retail exceeding 11% growth, indicating robust domestic demand.
• A draft of the "Gaming Management Measures" was sought for public opinion to refine regulations on game operations and underage protection, with authorities committed to revising based on feedback from stakeholders.

Overseas Factors

• The US economy showed resilience: manufacturing and services PMI outputs improved, holiday shopping exceeded expectations, and GDP growth forecasts were revised upward by major institutions like the Federal Reserve and Congressional Budget Office.
• TikTok set ambitious GMV targets for 2024, aiming for USD 50 billion versus USD 200 million in 2023, with signs of strong regional growth in Southeast Asia and the US market.
• Cross-border e-commerce platforms like Pinduoduo projected high GMV targets, reflecting supply-side strategies.

Investment Outlook

• Key sectors gaining focus include internet platforms (e.g., Pinduoduo, Tencent), emerging consumption (e.g., Pop Mart, Luckin Coffee), new auto brands (e.g., Li Xiang, XPeng), and dividend-yielding stocks as defensive options.
• Particular attention is advised for high-growth stocks under regulatory guidance or policy-driven revivals, such as New Oriental and New Century Education.

Risks and Events

• External risks: Ongoing US interest rate hikes and inflation threats; domestic issues include potential COVID flare-ups and slower economic growth from stimulus measures.
• Policy considerations: Draft gaming regulations for comprehensive revision, considering input on limits and protections; US-China trade tensions with potential tariffs on Chinese EVs discussed.

Additional Insights

• Market data showed variable individual stock performance, with technical details available in the full report.
• No structural changes expected from regulatory drafts, emphasizing focus on underlying growth.