2025-06-16-花旗集团-日产汽车（7201）_日产汽车（7201.T）_重申卖出-预计在2028财年3月前不会恢复盈利_16页_643kb

Nissan (7201.T) Investment Analysis Summary

Rating
Citi maintains Sell rating for Nissan with a ¥300 target price.

Key Recommendations
• Rapid restructuring acknowledged but volume/market share decline due to 25% tariffs and brand erosion risk.
• Earnings remain negative until FY3/28; target PBR reduced to 0.25x despite restructuring.

Sales & Profitability
• Sales forecasted to decline to ~2.39mn units in FY3/28; operational losses expected in FY3/26 and FY3/27.
• Financial metrics worsening: Net income drops ~68% YoY to ¥427bn; Cash balance falls ¥857bn; Net debt jumps 44%.

Valuation
• Target price set at ¥300 based on FY3/26 BPS of ¥1,217 and target PBR 0.25x (Trump-era average).
• Earnings-based valuation (low PER) reflects persistent profitability decline.

Key Risks

1. Geopolitical ̸> 25% tariffs
2. Macroeconomic ̸> JPY strengthening vs. USD
3. Operational/Reputational ̸> Restructuring impacts brand power; Competitive threat in tailwinds.

Summary
Citi urges investors to maintain short positions, citing long-term structural risks affecting recovery timeline and valuation. Proceed with caution due to reduced PBR and sustained negative earnings momentum.