2023-02-23-安永_中国_-China_s_economy_looks_set_for_a_rebound_in_2023_8页_2mb

报告摘要

2022 Context: China's economy experienced significant challenges in 2022 due to COVID-19, global economic headwinds, and energy crises. GDP grew 3% year-on-year, supported by domestic demand, infrastructure investment, and high-tech manufacturing, though some sectors saw drops.
2023 Outlook: The economy is poised for a strong rebound in 2023, with growth expected to accelerate in the second quarter and achieve a robust recovery by the second half of the year. Policies emphasize stabilization.
Key Drivers: Domestic demand expansion, infrastructure investment, and high-tech manufacturing will propel economic momentum, aided by the lifted zero-COVID policy. Trade surplus hit a record US$877.6 billion, boosted by exports.
Policy Measures: Proactive fiscal policy and monetary adjustments, including liquidity injections, aim to support high-tech sectors and consumption. The government plans up to RMB3.8 trillion in bonds for infrastructure projects.
Consumption Trends: Post-pandemic restrictions easing led to a 6.8% year-on-year rise in retail sales and 15.4% growth in dine-in services in January 2023. Green initiatives, such as renewable energy and electric vehicles, are advancing amid global uncertainties.
Risks and Opportunities: Challenges include supply chain volatility and financial risks in real estate, but growth in e-commerce and innovative consumption patterns presents opportunities, with potential mid-term moderation in some areas.