20150327-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_39页_1mb

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Date: Friday, 27 March 2015

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of stock performance and financial results for various companies in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, along with key indices, corporate events, and analyst insights.

Key Companies and Their Performance

China

• Beijing Capital Int'l Airport (694 HK)

  • 2014 Performance: Net profit rose 12.3% yoy excluding forex losses. Core net profit increased by 12.3% yoy.
  • 2015 Outlook: Expected 30% yoy net profit growth due to lower lease expenses, favorable concession terms, and higher international passenger traffic.
  • Target Price: HK$12.30 (up from HK$12.00)
  • Upside: +70.1%
  • Key Drivers: Improved operating efficiency, T3D acquisition, and higher international passenger traffic.
  • Dividend: Final dividend of Rmb0.0816/share (+7.2%)
  • Valuation: DCF and capitalised FCF suggest a target price of HK$12.30.
  • Risks: Potential reduction in airport fees, though the probability is low.

• Brilliance Auto (1114 HK)

  • 2014 Performance: Net profit surged 60% yoy, driven by better-than-expected margins in BMW Brilliance.
  • 2015 Outlook: Management expects at least 10% sales volume growth, with our forecast at 15%. Sales growth is expected to accelerate to over 20% in 2016-17 with new models.
  • Target Price: HK$18.00 (up from HK$17.50)
  • Upside: +26.4%
  • Key Drivers: Continued penetration of car loans, new model launches (e.g., 2-series, X1 LWB, 5-series), and contributions from BMW Auto Finance.
  • Mini-Bus Business: Continued operating losses expected in 2015-17, but potential turnaround if sales exceed expectations.
  • Margins: Expected to remain around 11% in 2015-16, slightly higher than previous estimates.

• China Mengniu (2319 HK)

  • 2014 Performance: Better-than-expected results due to higher-end products.
  • Outlook: Positive for 2015.

• China Resources Gas (1193 HK)

  • 2014 Performance: Net profit up 15% yoy.
  • Outlook: Brighter prospects expected in 2015.

• Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)

  • 2014 Performance: Core profit missed expectations, but sales are recovering.
  • Target Price: Cut from HK$17.50 to HK$15.00.
  • Outlook: Mixed results, with expectations of improved performance in 2015.

• GCL-Poly Energy Holdings (3800 HK)

  • 2014 Performance: Below expectations.
  • Outlook: Expected to benefit from wafer and solar farm businesses in 2015.
  • Action: Upgraded to BUY.

• ICBC (1398 HK)

  • 2014 Performance: Fundamentals intact, balanced growth expected.
  • Outlook: Strong fundamentals and continued growth.

• ZTE Corp (763 HK)

  • 2014 Performance: Results in line with expectations.
  • Outlook: Medium-term growth drivers include global 4G deployment and new initiatives.

Indonesia

• Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food (AISA IJ)
  • Strategy: Aggressive expansion in the rice business and food manufacturing.
  • Valuation: Trading at 12.3x 2015F PE.

Malaysia

• Gamuda (GAM MK)
  • 1HFY15 Performance: No surprises.
  • Outlook: Delay in the awarding of MRT Line 2 contracts expected.

Singapore

• Super Group (SUPER SP)
  • Outlook: Recovery in 2015 is already priced in.
  • Action: Downgraded to HOLD.

Thailand

• Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB)
  • 2015 Outlook: Net profit expected to rebound 28.4% yoy to Bt1,525.9m.
  • Growth Drivers: New hotel investments and extensions of existing hotels.

Key Indices

Top Picks

Key Assumptions

Corporate Events

Summary of Financial Highlights

• Beijing Capital International Airport (694 HK):

  • Net profit growth: 12.3% yoy (excluding forex).
  • Target price: HK$12.30 (up 70.1% from current price).
  • Key factors: International passenger growth, T3D acquisition, lower operating expenses.
  • Valuation: DCF and capitalised FCF suggest a target of HK$12.30.
  • Risk: Possible reduction in airport fees, though unlikely.

• Brilliance Auto (1114 HK):

  • Net profit growth: 60% yoy.
  • Target price: HK$18.00 (+26.4% upside).
  • Key factors: New model launches, continued car loan penetration, contribution from BMW Auto Finance.
  • Risk: Margin pressure from competition and lower capacity utilisation.

Analysts

• Beijing Capital International Airport: K Ajith, ajith@uobkayhian.com
• Brilliance Auto: Ken Lee, ken.lee@uobkayhian.com.hk

Stock Data

Beijing Capital International Airport (694 HK)

• GICS Sector: Industrials
• Shares Issued (m): 4,330.9
• Market Cap (HK$m): 31,312.3
• 3-Month Avg Daily Turnover (US$m): 6.7

Brilliance Auto (1114 HK)

• GICS Sector: Automobile
• Shares Issued (m): 5,021
• Market Cap (HK$m): 71,496
• 3-Month Avg Daily Turnover (US$m): 22.3

Conclusion

The document highlights the performance of key companies in various Asian markets, focusing on their financial results, growth expectations, and valuation. It suggests a positive outlook for companies like Beijing Capital International Airport and Brilliance Auto, while indicating caution for others like Super Group. The overall market indices show mixed performance, with some markets experiencing positive growth while others face challenges. Analysts maintain BUY ratings for several stocks, including Beijing Capital International Airport and Brilliance Auto, with raised target prices reflecting confidence in their future performance.