2025-06-16-Jefferies-澳瑞森（AZJ）_铜斑蛇铁路_9页_257kb

Key Points

• New Contract: Aurizon secured an integrated bulk contract with BHP to service copper operations in South Australia. The contract spans up to 10 years for haulage and logistics, and up to 15 years for terminal services. It includes integrated rail, road, and port logistics, starting in October 2025, with potential to double volumes based on BHP's expansion plans.

• Financial Outlook: The contract is expected to generate $1.5 billion in revenue over the first 10 years. Aurizon expects revenue growth to AUD 4.262 billion by 2027 (FY27E). EBIT is projected to reach AUD 1.891 billion in 2027, with an adjusted NPAT of AUD 5.75 million. EBIT margins are expected to rise to 26.6% by 2027.

• Investment Thesis: Aurizon’s BHP deal improves its contract quality and growth profile. A management transition from coal to bulk freight could support a valuation multiple re-rating. The company’s dividend yield is 5.8% (2024), with a price target of AUD 3.79 (24% upside).

• Risks: Key risks include lower coal volumes, repricing of haulage contracts, increased competition in Queensland, and ESG-related challenges given Aurizon’s reliance on coal.

• Valuation: Base Case PT: AUD 3.79. Upside scenario: AUD 4.61 (+51%). Downside scenario: AUD 2.21 (-28%).

Summary

Aurizon secured a major 10-year contract with BHP for copper logistics, expected to boost revenue to $1.5 billion over the initial term while transitioning towards bulk freight. The company’s financials show strong projected growth with EBIT margins rising to 26.6% by 2027. Key risks include coal volatility and competition, but a valuation multiple re-rating could support upside to AUD 4.61 per share.