兰德-解放军军事现代化的驱动因素，部队重组及其启示（英文）-2018.2-16页

PLA Military Modernization: Drivers, Force Restructuring, and Implications

Core Content

The document outlines the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission testimony by Cortez A. Cooper III on PLA military modernization, emphasizing the strategic and operational shifts under President Xi Jinping. It highlights how the PLA's restructuring is part of a broader "Chinese Dream" vision for national rejuvenation, focusing on enhancing China's military capabilities to align with its growing global ambitions.

Main Views

1. Drivers of PLA Modernization

• Strategic Goals: PLA modernization is driven by the CCP's strategic guidelines, which emphasize the need for a strong military to protect national interests, including sovereignty, security, and development.
• Threat Perceptions: China perceives threats from the U.S., Japan, and other regional actors, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. These include U.S. military presence, Japanese remilitarization, and the potential for regional conflict involving the U.S. and Japan.
• Technological Advancement: The PLA is modernizing to develop informatized, integrated joint operations capabilities, leveraging advanced technologies such as C4ISR, cyber, space, and hypersonic systems.
• Economic and Global Interests: China's modernization also aims to protect its overseas investments, trade routes, and citizens, as well as its interests in new domains like space and cyberspace.

2. Force Restructuring

• Centralization of Command: The PLA's restructuring under Xi Jinping has centralized command under the Central Military Commission (CMC), reducing the influence of the old four General Departments and seven Military Regions.
• Theater Commands: The reorganization established five Theater Commands, each responsible for operations in specific regions, including one focused on Beijing. This shift enhances joint operations and reduces the dominance of ground forces.
• New Military Units: The restructuring created the PLA Rocket Force, Joint Logistics Support Force, and Strategic Support Force, integrating functions such as space, cyber, and electronic warfare.
• Reduction in Personnel: A significant reduction of 300,000 personnel is part of the restructuring, aiming to improve efficiency and focus on modern capabilities.

3. Operational Implications

• Integrated Joint Operations: The PLA is moving toward integrated joint operations (IJO), emphasizing information dominance and precision strikes.
• Domain Awareness: The PLA is expected to contest all domains of conflict—ground, air, sea, space, cyberspace, and electromagnetic—by 2035.
• Technological Leap: The PLA aims to develop capabilities that can disrupt or paralyze enemy systems within their decision cycle, such as C4ISR and counter-C4ISR systems.
• Overseas Deployment: The restructuring supports the development of joint force packages for overseas operations, with initial steps including the establishment of a base in Djibouti.

Key Information

• Timeline: The PLA is expected to achieve significant modernization by 2035, with full realization of the "Chinese Dream" by 2049.
• Technology Focus: Key technologies include quantum computing, hypersonic weapons, artificial intelligence, and cyber capabilities.
• U.S. Response: The U.S. should focus on countering PLA modernization through:
  • Proportional response options to Chinese coercion.
  • Increased joint exercises with regional allies.
  • Demonstrating advanced capabilities in maritime and information domains.
  • Investing in systems that can disrupt Chinese plans, such as extended range cruise missiles and mobile air defenses.
  • Leading in disruptive technologies and ensuring the protection of U.S. intellectual property.

Recommendations for the United States

• Strategic Signaling: Clearly signal the intent to lead in disruptive technologies to deter Chinese leapfrogging.
• Assessment and Oversight: Encourage comprehensive assessments of China's military strategy and technological priorities.
• Counterintelligence Efforts: Build an integrated government-commercial counterintelligence initiative to protect U.S. military and industrial assets.
• Regional Engagement: Strengthen alliances and partnerships through joint exercises and presence in key areas to increase Chinese risk aversion.

Conclusion

The PLA's modernization and restructuring represent a major shift in China's military strategy, with implications for U.S. security and global stability. The U.S. must respond proactively and strategically to counter the growing capabilities of the PLA, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, while maintaining a technological and operational edge.