2017年-PIIE彼得森国际经济研究所_The_Case_for_an_American_Productivity_Revival_11页_329kb

Summary of Policy Brief: The Case for an American Productivity Revival

Core Content

This policy brief argues that the United States is on the verge of a productivity revival, despite the current decade-long slowdown. The authors, Lee Branstetter and Daniel Sichel, emphasize that the current productivity performance is not indicative of the long-term potential for growth, and that recent technological and investment developments suggest a strong foundation for a return to robust productivity growth.

Main Points and Key Arguments

• Productivity Slowdown is Not New:
  US labor productivity growth has historically experienced ups and downs. Periods of significant slowdown, such as after 1973 and 2004, have been followed by rebounds. This pattern suggests that current weakness may not be permanent.

• Official Data Understate Innovation:
  Traditional measures of productivity and investment, particularly those focused on physical capital, significantly understate the pace of innovation. For instance:

  • IT Innovation: Price declines for high-tech products, especially semiconductors, are much faster than official indexes suggest. A hedonic index developed by Byrne, Oliner, and Sichel shows annual price declines of 42% for microprocessors, compared to only 6% using the official producer price index.
  • Intangible Investment: Business investment in intangible capital (such as software, R&D, and organizational capital) is substantial but not fully captured by GDP accounts. This investment is crucial for productivity growth and has remained relatively stable since the 1970s.

• Time Lags in Productivity Effects:
  The impact of innovation and investment on productivity often takes time to materialize. For example, the benefits of IT investments in the 1990s were not realized until the early 2000s. Similarly, the current wave of digital innovation may take several years to fully show up in productivity statistics.

• New Opportunities for Productivity Growth:
  Four key developments are identified as potential drivers of a productivity revival:

  • Healthcare System Improvements: Advances in data analytics, AI-based clinical decision support, and telemedicine could significantly reduce waste and improve efficiency in healthcare, contributing to productivity gains.
  • Robotics Expansion: The rise of robotics, especially in manufacturing and services, is expected to boost productivity as firms adopt more efficient automation.
  • E-Learning Revolution: Digital educational tools, such as cognitive tutors, are shown to enhance learning outcomes and improve labor quality, with potential to increase productivity growth by up to 30 basis points annually.
  • Globalization of Invention: Increased research intensity in non-Western economies, particularly in China and India, is expected to contribute to global productivity growth through expanded collaboration and knowledge sharing.

Policy Recommendations

• Support for Scientific Research: The federal government should expand funding for basic scientific research to stimulate innovation.
• Immigration Reform: Allow more immigration of highly skilled scientists, engineers, and entrepreneurs to bolster the innovation ecosystem.
• Open Trade and Investment Policies: Maintain open trade and investment policies to facilitate the flow of ideas and capital.
• Strengthen the Safety Net: Support workers displaced by technological change to ensure a smooth transition and avoid negative social impacts.
• Educational Technology Investment: Implement policies that promote the use of new educational technologies to enhance human capital and labor productivity.

Productivity Growth Projections

Conclusion

The authors conclude that a productivity revival is not only plausible but necessary for sustained economic growth and improved living standards. While current productivity data may be misleading, the underlying technological and investment trends suggest a return to higher growth rates. With the right policies in place, the US could see a return to 2% or more annual labor productivity growth, potentially raising the long-term real GDP growth rate above 2.5%. The next administration, including President Trump or his successor, has the opportunity to lead this revival by fostering innovation, supporting investment, and promoting educational and technological progress.