2025-06-17-Jefferies-印度金融日报_2025年6月17日_14页_825kb

Equity Research Summary: India Financial Daily (June 17, 2025)

Market Overview:

• Nifty gained 0.9%, Nifty Bank gained 0.8% on June 16, 2025. Top performers included Anand Rathi Wealth (+4.5%), Infibeam Avenues (+3.7%). Bottom performers included Muthoot Microfin (-2.8%), Dhani Services (-2.6%).
• Over the past month, Nifty remained flat, while Nifty Bank rose 1%.

Key Regulatory & Corporate Events:

• SEBI: Scheduled board meeting on June 18, 2025, to discuss:
  • Treatment of REITs/InvITs as equity.
  • A separate voluntary delisting framework for PSUs (90%+ holding).
  • Amendment to ESOP rules for start-up founders post-IPO.
  • Other topics include FPI/AIF proposals. De-merger of clearing corporations not expected this board.
• RBI:
  • Approved Sandeep Batra's re-extension as ED of ICICI Bank w.e.f Dec 23, 25.
  • Aggregate bank credit growth slowed to 9% YoY on May 30, 2025. (Exhibit 5); Trend shows credit growth declining since August 24 (Exhibit 6).
  • Aggregate deposits grew 10% YoY on May 30, 2025 (Exhibit 7). Trend shows deposit growth declining since August 24 (Exhibit 8).
• SBI Group & NBFCs:
  • Jana Small Finance Bank (Jana SFB) expects 20% loan/deposit growth in FY26, plan to reduce secured asset mix. Recently cut deposit rates.
  • AlphaGrep Securities (AlphaGrep) received SEBI nod in-principle to launch MF business based on quantitative models.
  • MCX launched monthly silver options, following gold success.
  • InCred Alternative Investments plans a ~Rs15bn second PE fund, aiming to increase deal size and tap institutional investors.
  • Recent ratings/analyses include reiterating holdings on IndusInd Bank, PNB (contesting) is a BUY, Bandhan Bank (attractive ROA potential) is a BUY despite margin pressure, LIC HF holds (reasonable valuation) etc.
  • Calendar highlights include upcoming data on Infrastructure, Industrial Production, and Fiscal Deficit (June 20 October 27).

Valuation & Recommendations:

• Exhibit 12 provides valuation matrices for private banks (e.g., HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank: BUY; Axis Bank: BUY), PSU banks (e.g., SBI: BUY; BOB: HOLD; PNB: BUY), NBFCs (e.g., Bajaj Finance: BUY; Shriram Finance: BUY), Fintechs (e.g., Paytm: HOLD; Muthoot Finance Incidentally in positive report section), Wealth Managers (360 ONE, Nuvama: BUY), etc.
• Valuation metrics include Price (Rs, US$bn), Market Cap (US$, Mn.), Target Price, Upside %, and key ratios (P/B, P/E, PB, Dividend Yield, ROA, ROE).
• The top picks ("Franchise Picks") generally trend towards banks (HDFC, ICICI, Axis, Kotak) and NBFCs (Bajaj Finance, Shriram Finance, Can Fin Homes, etc.) rated Buy. Some insurers and AMCs are also rated Buy. Muthoot Finance had an upside warning (-27%).

Key Messages / Notes:

• The report emphasizes stronger growth for private banks and select NBFCs.
• Jana SFB significantly cut deposit rates.
• Staffed card processing providers show improving profit outlooks.
• Valuations are generally reasonable or on the lower end for predicted growth.
• The document is intended for Jefferies clients only and contains disclaimers and analyst certifications.