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Big Yellow (BYG.L) Goldman Sachs Research Summary

Rating: Neutral, unchanged from Sep 9, 2024.
Price Target: 1,110p, 12-day upside potential of 12.5% unchanged.

Key Updates from FY24/25 Results

• Earnings: Adjusted FY26E/28E EPS down 0% to -2% due to lower occupancy assumptions offset by reduced operating costs in FY25.
• Revenue Growth: Slowed to 3.2% y/y in FY24/25 from peaks; expected moderate improvement to +3% in FY26E as inflation stabilizes.

Financial Outlook

• Occupancy: Stable at ~80.3%–81.0% for FY26E/FY27E, despite muted demand indicators like 3% y/y decline in UK M&A prospects and Google searches for "self storage near me."
• Costs: Falling inflation and financing costs may support margins; ROAE/ROCE holding steady.
• Balance Sheet: Strong with low net debt/EBITDA (3.4x) and LTV (12.8%), lowest in sector; management maintains development pipeline targeting £36.6m NOI yield in FY26E.

Valuation Assessment

• Fair Value: Trading at 6.3% earnings yield, above long-term average (4.6%); 31% discount to NTA relative to 0% long-term average.
• Upside/Downside: Upside related to revenue/margin improvements, offset by risks.

Key Risks

• Macroeconomic Factors: Weak UK GDP or inflation could impact occupancy and rental growth.
• Development Pipeline: Project delays or lower leasing rates could affect earnings forecasts.
• Residential Market: Shifts in demand could alter storage space utilization.
• Financing: Changes in funding costs or ability to finance pipeline could influence investments.

Forward Look

• Revenue/Profit Growth: Expected to stabilize in FY26E (-1% to +2% EPS revision); NTA forecasts revised -2% based on FY25 results.
• Economic Context: GS economists forecast subdued UK GDP and wage growth, with potential drag from global trade tensions.

Summary: GS maintains Neutral stance, highlighting stable occupancy and potential upside from cost reductions, but risks from macroeconomic uncertainty loom large.