20140807-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_38页_2mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 07 August 2014

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of regional market insights, focusing on China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. It highlights key sector updates, company results, analyst recommendations, and market assumptions for the period.

Main Points by Region

China - Solar Power

Sector Outlook: Distributed solar power (DG) is expected to experience a significant boom due to policy adjustments aimed at removing bottlenecks.
Policy Support: The NEA is expected to release fine-tuned policies in August, including more flexible tariffs, extra local subsidies, and better coordination for DG projects.
Key Bottlenecks: Challenges include finding suitable rooftops, obtaining bank loans, and connecting to the power grid. These issues may be resolved with improved government coordination.
Sector Picks:
- Singyes Solar (750 HK): Recommended as a BUY with a target price of HK$15.00.
- GCL Poly (3800 HK): Recommended as a BUY with a target price of HK$3.00.
Strategic Cooperation: Singyes Solar, GCL-Poly, and GCL New Energy have formed a strategic alliance to develop DG projects, targeting at least 500MW in 2015.

Hong Kong - Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (388 HK)

Earnings: 1H14 net profit was HK$2,367m, up 1.7% yoy. 2Q14 net profit edged up 1% qoq.
Market Outlook: Muted earnings growth is expected, but the preparation for the Stock Connect is on track.
Recommendation: Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$205.00 and an upside of +17.5%.
Key Drivers: Expected launch of Stock Connect in October, potential LME fee increase in 2015, and improving market sentiment.
Financials:
- Revenue mix remains stable, with trading fees and listing fees as the main contributors.
- Fwd PE ratio is at 29.8x, lower than the prior peak of 41.8x.
- Operating expenses rose due to legal fees and depreciation, but are expected to continue.

Indonesia - Technical Analysis

Sector Pick: Buy INTP (a quality cement stock).

Malaysia - MISC (MISC MK)

Results: 1H14 results were in line with expectations, but prospects remain unexciting.
Recommendation: Maintain HOLD with a target price of RM7.00.

Singapore - Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP)

Results: 2Q14 performance was strong, with good progress on overseas utility projects.
Recommendation: BUY with a target price of S$5.95.

Thailand - Property Sector

2Q14 Preview: Normalised profit for covered stocks is expected to increase by 27.9% qoq, but growth remains flat yoy.

CP ALL (CPALL TB)

Results: 2Q14 net profit was down 15% yoy and 17% qoq, and 16% below consensus.
Recommendation: Maintain HOLD with a target price of Bt50.00.

Key Indices Performance

Index	Previous Close	1 Day %	1 Week %	1 Month %	YTD %
DJIA	16443.3	0.1	(2.6)	(3.7)	(0.8)
S&P 500	1920.2	0.0	(2.5)	(3.3)	3.9
FTSE 100	6636.2	(0.7)	(2.0)	(3.3)	(1.7)
AS30	5504.0	(0.1)	(2.0)	(0.0)	2.8
CSI 300	2363.2	(0.3)	1.8	8.6	1.4
FSSTI	3320.2	(0.2)	(1.0)	0.9	4.8
HSI	24584.1	(0.3)	(0.6)	4.4	5.5
JCI	5058.2	(1.0)	(0.7)	1.4	18.3
KLCI	1869.9	(0.4)	(0.4)	(1.2)	0.2
KOSPI	2060.7	(0.3)	(1.1)	2.8	2.5
Nikkei 225	15159.8	(1.0)	(3.1)	(1.4)	(6.9)
SET	1522.4	(0.4)	0.2	1.3	17.2
TWSE	9144.0	0.0	(3.2)	(4.0)	6.2
BDI	759	0.5	0.7	(15.0)	(66.7)
CPO (RM/mt)	2326	(0.2)	(0.8)	(5.3)	(9.6)
Nymex Crude	97	(0.0)	(1.3)	(6.4)	(1.6)

Top Picks

Company	Ticker	Recommendation	Current Price	Target Price	Potential Upside
CNBM	3323 HK	BUY	HK$7.76	HK$9.82	+26.5%
ICBC	1398 HK	BUY	HK$5.22	HK$6.15	+17.8%
Bank Mandiri	BMRI J	BUY	RM10,275.00	RM10,800.00	+5.1%
GAM	GAM MK	BUY	RM4.85	RM5.60	+15.5%
DBS	DBS SP	BUY	S$18.37	S$22.68	+23.5%
Pacific Radiance	PACRA SP	BUY	S$1.35	S$1.55	+14.8%
Bangkok Bank	BBL TB	BUY	Bt198.00	Bt237.00	+19.7%
PTTGC	PTTGC TB	BUY	Bt65.50	Bt80.00	+11.1%
PTTEP	PTTEP TB	BUY	Bt161.50	Bt199.00	+11.1%

Key Assumptions

Country/Region	2013 GDP %	2014F GDP %	2015F GDP %
US	1.9	3.0	3.0
Euro Zone	-0.4	1.0	1.4
Japan	1.5	2.1	2.0
Singapore	3.9	4.2	4.2
Malaysia	4.7	5.6	5.2
Thailand	2.9	1.5	5.1
Indonesia	5.8	5.5	6.0
Hong Kong	2.9	3.5	3.7
China	7.7	7.3	7.3

Corporate Events

Event Name	Venue	Start Date	End Date
Greater China 2H14 Market Strategy Analyst Presentation	Kuala Lumpur, Taipei	6 Aug	7 Aug
Bumilama Agri Corporate Luncheon	Singapore	13 Aug	13 Aug
Jiangnan Group Corporate Roadshow	Hong Kong	15 Aug	15 Aug
Dah Chong Hong Luncheon	Hong Kong	19 Aug	19 Aug
Singamas Container Holdings Corporate Roadshow	Hong Kong	22 Aug	22 Aug
Top Glove Corporate Roadshow	Montreal	2 Sep	2 Sep
Asian Gems Conference	Singapore	8 Oct	9 Oct

Risks and Assumptions

Risks: Execution risks in expansion, delays in bank loan issuance.
Assumptions Changes: None.

Analysts

Kevin Zhao Yong Tao: +8621 5404 7225 ext 805, kevinzhao@uobkayhian.com
James Yuan Bei Lun: +8621 5404 7225 ext 820, jamesyuan@uobkayhian.com
Edmond Law: +852 2826 4837, edmond.law@uobkayhian.com.hk
Terrance Liu: +852 2826 1351, Terrance.liu@uobkayhian.com.hk

Summary

The document outlines the current market outlook for several regions, with a focus on China's solar power sector, Hong Kong's financial markets, and other key players. The NEA's anticipated policy adjustments are expected to boost DG installations, with EPC contractors like Singyes Solar and GCL Poly being key beneficiaries. In Hong Kong, the preparation for the Stock Connect is progressing, and the exchange is expected to launch in October. Despite some muted earnings growth in 1H14, the company's strong fundamentals and market catalysts support a BUY recommendation. In Singapore, Sembcorp Industries is highlighted for its performance and growth potential. In Malaysia, MISC's results were in line with expectations, but the outlook remains unexciting. The report also includes key indices and corporate events, providing a comprehensive view of regional market dynamics.

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