2018年-ECB欧洲央行_The_economic_impact_of_population_ageing_and_pension_reforms_25页_339kb

Summary of the Economic Impact of Population Ageing and Pension Reforms

Core Content

This document discusses the economic implications of population ageing in the euro area and the role of pension reforms in mitigating these effects. It highlights the challenges posed by demographic changes, including reduced potential growth, increased fiscal burdens, and shifts in relative prices. The analysis also explores the macroeconomic and fiscal consequences of various pension reform measures.

Main Drivers of Population Ageing

• Low fertility rates: The average fertility rate in the euro area is 1.6, significantly below the natural replacement level of 2.1.
• Increased life expectancy: Life expectancy is expected to continue rising, with projections indicating an average of 23.6 years for men and 26.9 years for women at age 65 by 2070.
• Demographic shifts: The "baby boomer generation" (born in the 1950s and 1960s) will increasingly enter retirement over the next two decades.
• Net migration: While net migration can partially offset population decline, its impact is expected to diminish over time.

Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing

3.1 Impact on Potential Growth

• Labour supply decline: Fewer young workers entering the workforce and lower participation rates among older workers will reduce the overall labour supply.
• Productivity losses: Ageing may lead to a slowdown in total factor productivity, which can negatively affect output per worker.
• Capital formation: The scarcity of labour may lead to capital deepening, which can reduce the negative impact on investment.
• Consumption patterns: As people age, they tend to save more and consume less, leading to a decline in private consumption and a shift from savers to dissavers.

3.2 Fiscal Implications

• Public spending increase: Ageing is projected to raise public expenditure on pensions, healthcare, and long-term care, increasing from 21% of GDP in 2013 to 23% in 2060.
• Pension expenditure: Pension costs are expected to rise due to an increasing number of pensioners, though reforms such as changes in coverage and benefit ratios may help offset this.
• Public debt: The reference scenario predicts a significant rise in the government debt-to-GDP ratio, potentially reaching unsustainable levels without policy adjustments.
• Uncertainty in projections: Population projections are highly sensitive to assumptions about fertility, life expectancy, and migration, with migration uncertainty being the largest.

Role of Pension Reforms

• Retirement age increase: Raising the retirement age is considered a more effective measure to counteract the adverse macroeconomic effects of ageing, as it positively impacts the labour supply and consumption.
• Contribution rate and benefit ratio: Increasing contribution rates or reducing benefit ratios may have less favourable macroeconomic implications.
• Model simulations: A stylised overlapping generations (OLG) model shows that an ageing shock leads to a decline in GDP per capita by 4.7%, a fall in real interest rates, and an increase in public debt.

Key Findings from the Stylised Model

• GDP per capita: Decreases by 4.7% due to lower employment and consumption.
• Private consumption: Falls by 5.6% as workers save more and pensioners dissave more gradually.
• Employment: Drops by 5.1% as the working-age population shrinks.
• Savings: Workers increase precautionary savings, which rises by 41.7 percentage points of GDP.
• Capital to labour ratio: Increases by 2.3 percentage points, leading to lower returns on capital.
• Public debt: Rises by 59.3 percentage points, reaching unsustainable levels without reform.

Relative Prices and Monetary Policy

• Shift in demand: Ageing leads to higher demand for services, which can influence relative prices and the transmission of monetary policy.
• Interest rates: Ageing may dampen interest rates over time due to increased precautionary savings.
• Monetary policy implications: The equilibrium real interest rate is expected to fall, which can affect the effectiveness of monetary policy.

Country-Specific Variations

• Old-age dependency ratios: Expected to rise significantly, with Portugal projected to have the highest at 67% by 2070.
• Public pension systems: Countries with more generous systems (higher pension costs relative to dependency ratios) will face greater fiscal pressure.
• Cross-country differences: Some countries, such as Ireland, are expected to have lower dependency ratios, while others, like Germany and Greece, face more pronounced challenges.

Conclusion

Population ageing in the euro area is expected to have a substantial negative impact on potential growth and fiscal sustainability. While pension reforms can help mitigate these effects, the most effective measures are those that increase the retirement age. However, the model-based analysis highlights the complexity and uncertainty of demographic projections, and the need for tailored policy responses at the national level.