世界银行-世界银行通过国际开发协会融资支持就业和劳动力市场改革：第一阶段评估（英）-2024.1-148页_6mb

Introduction and Key Messages

This evaluation assesses the World Bank's International Development Association (IDA) jobs strategy from 2014 to 2022, focusing on its contribution to more, better, and more inclusive jobs through IDA financing. The strategy successfully used jobs diagnostics to fill knowledge gaps and adapted to country evidence, but it fell short in improving results measurement. The performance of jobs interventions was generally on track, with design often informed by evidence, though outcomes were poorly tracked due to a focus on outputs.

Key findings include:

• The IDA jobs strategy had strong analytical underpinnings and operational relevance, particularly through country-specific diagnostics.
• Jobs interventions evolved to emphasize demand-side approaches, such as value chains and agribusiness, with better integration of supply-side elements in some cases.
• Results measurement remained a weakness, as outcome indicators were scarce, limiting effectiveness assessments.
• Recurrent recommendations include enhancing measurement systems and leveraging diagnostics more effectively.

The evaluation is the first step in assessing the World Bank's jobs agenda, with potential implications for future IDA and Bank Group programming.

Evaluation Scope and Strategy

The evaluation covers IDA-financed projects directly supporting jobs-related objectives from 2015 to 2022. It focuses on three interrelated channels: labor demand, labor supply, and labor market flexibility. The IDA jobs strategy, established under Replenishments IDA17, IDA18, and IDA19, included policy commitments, results indicators, and a Results Measurement System. Findings examine the strategy's analytical basis, adaptation, and operational translation.

Analytical Underpinnings and Operational Relevance

The IDA jobs strategy demonstrated strong analytical foundations through mandated jobs diagnostics, which provided actionable recommendations to address country-specific jobs challenges. Policy commitments evolved adaptively, incorporating lessons from diagnostics and country evidence, leading to better articulation of jobs objectives in Country Partnership Frameworks (CPFs). High engagement with fragile and conflict-affected situations increased, with a stronger focus on youth employment and integrating diagnostics into country strategies.

However, the strategy's promise to improve results measurement was not fully realized. Results frameworks largely tracked outputs, not outcomes, and attribute concerns hindered outcome indicators. Jobs diagnostics improved CPF treatment of youth and gender, but operationalization was limited.

Jobs Interventions

Jobs interventions evolved from the IDA strategy, showing a shift toward demand-side interventions, stringent labor demand supports for value chains and agribusiness, and greater focus on youth and women, as recommended. Bundling of supply- and demand-side interventions became common practice.

Examples include:

• Agricultural value chain projects supported by collaboration between Global Practices (e.g., Agriculture and Finance), increasing shares of skilled employment.
• Skills development, training, and entrepreneurship projects remain mixed in effectiveness, with some impact evaluations showing promise but others facing data and context challenges.

Private sector engagement and development policy financing were used to support jobs outcomes through reforms, though impact was variable.

Performance and Effectiveness

Project performance ratings for closed jobs-interventions were slightly better than average, with a high proportion of indicators meeting targets. However, data limitations and weak outcome measurement hide gaps in actual effectiveness. Ineffective results frameworks reduced accountability, and implementation was hampered by factors like inadequate capacity and political risks.

Performance highlights:

• Project implementation was relatively on track, with progress evident in many case studies.
• Collaboration across Global Practices was limited, showing pockets of strong partnership but barriers in leveraging expertise fully.

Conclusions and Recommendations

Based on the evidence, the IDA jobs strategy achieved some success but fell short in translating its design into measurable outcomes. The evaluation recommends:

• Strengthening job results measurement through outcome-level indicators and enhanced data collection.
• Better integrating jobs diagnostics into operational design to improve country-level interventions.

This first-stage evaluation lays groundwork for iterative improvement in the World Bank's approach to jobs and labor market reform.