UBS-2021年全球不动产泡沫指数（英）-33页_4mb

UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index Summary (2021)

Core Content

The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index (2021) provides an analysis of housing market imbalances across major global cities. It highlights the growing risk of real estate bubbles, driven by rising prices, low financing costs, and speculative investment activity. The report also notes the impact of the pandemic on urban housing demand and affordability.

Main Points

• Global Housing Price Trends:
  Real house price growth accelerated to 6% from mid-2020 to mid-2021, the highest increase since 2014. Cities like Moscow, Stockholm, and those around the Pacific (Sydney, Tokyo, Vancouver) saw double-digit price growth.

• Bubble Risk Zones:

  • Europe has the highest imbalances, with 6 out of 9 cities in the bubble risk zone.
  • Frankfurt, Toronto, and Hong Kong top the index, indicating the most pronounced bubble risk.
  • Munich and Zurich also show elevated risk, while Moscow and Stockholm re-entered the bubble risk zone.
  • None of the US cities are in bubble risk territory, though Miami, Los Angeles, Boston, and New York are overvalued.
  • Dubai is the only market classified as undervalued.

• Affordability Concerns:

  • The price-to-income ratio for a 60 square meter apartment in most global cities is above 8, with Hong Kong, Paris, London, and Tokyo exceeding 10.
  • In Hong Kong, even those earning double the average income struggle to afford a 60 square meter apartment.
  • Miami, Los Angeles, Boston, Dubai, and Milan have relatively more affordable housing, reducing the risk of price correction.

• Rents on the Decline:

  • Rent levels have declined in many cities, especially in urban centers, due to the rise of remote work and pandemic restrictions.
  • In some cities, double-digit rent drops have been recorded.

• Methodology & Risks:

  • The index identifies price bubbles through patterns like price-rent decoupling, high leverage, and excessive lending.
  • Low interest rates and easy lending standards have been key drivers of price increases, but they also increase vulnerability to corrections.
  • High price-to-rent ratios in cities like Zurich, Hong Kong, and Munich suggest that housing prices are over-dependent on low interest rates.

Key Information

Regional Analysis

Eurozone

• Frankfurt, Munich, Paris, and Amsterdam remain in bubble risk territory.
• Munich saw a slight decline in index score compared to last year.
• Zurich and Geneva have seen a steady rise in index scores but remain in overvalued territory.
• Stockholm and Moscow recorded the strongest price increases, with Moscow having the highest annual growth.
• Warsaw is fairly valued, with low supply driving price growth and less severe imbalances than in 2008.

Rest of Europe

• Zurich and Frankfurt show the highest bubble risk scores.
• Munich and Paris have the highest price-to-rent ratios.
• Stockholm re-entered bubble risk territory due to 20-year high price growth.
• London remains in overvalued territory, with price growth lagging behind the UK average.

United States

• Historically low mortgage rates have supported price growth, but most cities trail the national average.
• San Francisco and New York saw significant price and rent declines, though New York showed resilience in recent months.
• Miami, Los Angeles, and Boston are moving into overvalued territory, while New York and San Francisco remain overvalued despite lower scores.

Canada

• Vancouver and Toronto experienced a housing bubble between 2000 and 2017, driven by low interest rates, urbanization, and international demand.
• Local regulations such as higher down payments and stress tests have helped cool the market.
• Index scores have increased again due to declining mortgage rates and population growth.

APAC

• All APAC cities saw increased index scores over the last four quarters.
• Hong Kong is the only city in bubble risk territory, despite a 15-year price decline starting in 2018.
• Singapore has seen aligned price and income growth, though price growth increased in 2018 due to foreign demand.
• Sydney and Tokyo have high price growth, with Tokyo showing decoupling from the rest of Japan.

Middle East

• Dubai saw a 40% price drop since 2014, but recent improvements in affordability and mortgage regulations have restarted a recovery.
• Tel Aviv has experienced strong price growth (7% annually from 2003–2017), though correction periods were short-lived due to low interest rates and population growth.

Global Cities' Benchmarks

• Price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios are used to assess affordability and overvaluation.
• Frankfurt, Zurich, Hong Kong, Munich, and Paris have the highest price-to-rent ratios, indicating overreliance on low interest rates.
• Zurich and Frankfurt have the strongest price growth in their regions.
• London remains in overvalued territory, though its price growth has lagged the UK market.

Conclusion

The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index reveals a global trend of rising housing prices, increased leverage, and affordability challenges, particularly in European and Asian cities. While low interest rates and speculative investment have fueled growth, the risk of a market correction is growing. Urban housing is no longer the only driver of appreciation, as demand shifts to suburbs and non-urban areas. Caution is advised regarding leverage and affordability, especially in cities with high price-to-rent ratios and overvalued markets.