2022-12-22-OPEC-世界石油展望2045（2022年版）_332页_11mb

2022 World Oil Outlook Summary

Core Content

The OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO) is a comprehensive report that provides insights into the future of the global energy landscape, with a specific focus on oil and its role in the energy mix. It outlines the expected changes in energy demand, supply, and the broader implications of energy policies and technological advancements on the industry.

The report is designed to offer digital access through the OPEC WOO App and an interactive version, enhancing user experience by allowing data downloads, comparisons, and easy navigation.

Main Points

Global Population and Demographics

• The global population is projected to increase from 7.9 billion in 2021 to 9.5 billion by 2045, with non-OECD countries accounting for 96% of the growth.
• The working-age population (15–64 years) is expected to grow by 870 million during the projection period.
• Urbanization rates are forecast to rise, with 66% of the global population living in cities by 2045.

Economic Growth

• The global GDP is expected to grow at an average rate of 3% per annum from 2021 to 2045.
• The OECD is projected to grow at 1.7% p.a., while the non-OECD will grow at 3.8% p.a.
• The world GDP is expected to double by 2045, reaching $270 trillion (based on 2017 PPP), with China and India accounting for 37% of the global GDP, and the OECD for 34%.
• OECD Americas will have the highest GDP per capita, while the Middle East & Africa (excluding OPEC) will have the lowest, expected to be under $10,000 (2017 PPP).

Energy Demand

• Primary energy demand is expected to rise from 286 mboe/d in 2021 to 351 mboe/d in 2045, a 23% increase.
• Non-OECD countries will be the main drivers of this growth.
• CO₂ emissions are expected to increase, but with a focus on energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy adoption.

Oil Demand

• Oil demand is expected to grow, with the OECD and non-OECD regions showing different growth patterns.
• The aviation and petrochemical sectors are key contributors to oil demand.
• India and China are expected to have significant oil demand growth, particularly in the transport and petrochemical sectors.

Liquids Supply

• Global liquids supply is expected to increase, driven by non-OPEC countries and tight oil production in the United States.
• OPEC will continue to play a central role in global supply, with upstream investment requirements estimated at $12.1 trillion by 2045.
• The US is a major contributor to tight oil supply, with investment requirements and production trends highlighted in the report.

Refining Outlook

• Refinery capacity is expected to grow, with distillation capacity additions and secondary capacity playing a key role.
• Refining investment requirements are projected to be significant, with a focus on desulphurization, octane capacity, and conversion projects.
• Refinery closures and capacity deficits are anticipated in certain regions, which will impact oil supply and demand balance.

Oil Movements

• Crude oil and product movements are analyzed, with a focus on interregional trade and export/import trends.
• Major exporters include the Middle East, Latin America, Russia & Caspian, and Africa, with destinations such as Europe, Asia-Pacific, and US & Canada being key importers.

Energy Policy and Climate Change

• The Glasgow Climate Pact emphasized the need for climate action, adaptation, and increased cooperation.
• Energy security has become a key policy focus, especially in the context of geopolitical tensions and energy poverty.
• The energy sustainability trilemma (affordability, security, emissions) is highlighted, with a call for inclusive and resilient energy strategies.

Technology and Innovation

• Technology will continue to shape the energy mix, with internal combustion engines (ICEs) and conventional aircraft engines remaining dominant in transport.
• Electric vehicles (EVs) are gaining traction, but ICEs will still be significant due to improving fuel efficiency.
• Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is becoming a key fuel in marine transport, with a sulphur cap and emissions reduction goals.
• Renewables (especially wind and solar) are expected to grow in power generation, displacing coal.
• Hydrogen is recognized as a significant future energy carrier.

Key Information

• The WOO emphasizes the importance of utilizing all energy sources for affordability, security, and emissions reduction.
• OPEC and its partners are committed to ensuring a sustainable and stable environment for investment in the oil industry.
• The oil industry will need to add 5 mb/d annually to maintain current production levels at ~100 mb/d, due to an average annual decline rate of ~5%.
• Chronic underinvestment in the oil industry, due to industry downturns, pandemic effects, and fossil fuel financing policies, is a major concern.
• OPEC Member Countries are investing in renewables, nuclear, gas, and hydrogen to further decarbonize the industry.
• Digital tools such as the OPEC WOO App and interactive version are being developed to improve data accessibility and user engagement.

Conclusion

The 2022 World Oil Outlook provides a detailed analysis of the global energy landscape up to 2045, highlighting the growth in population, GDP, and energy demand, particularly in non-OECD regions. It underscores the need for investment, technological adaptation, and policy coordination to ensure energy security and sustainable development. The report also emphasizes the importance of a balanced approach to energy transition, acknowledging the continued relevance of oil and other fossil fuels in the global energy mix.