2025-06-02-艾昆纬-全球肿瘤学趋势2025（英）_83页_3mb

Summary of Global Oncology Trends 2025

Core Content

This report outlines the current trends in oncology research, development, and treatment globally, focusing on the shift toward novel therapies, disparities in patient access, and the financial implications of these advancements. It highlights the increasing role of emerging biopharma companies, the rise of China in oncology innovation, and the growing importance of specific therapeutic modalities.

Main Points

• Global Oncology Research Trends:

  • The number of oncology clinical trials increased slightly in 2024 to 2,162, representing a 12% rise since 2019.
  • Trials are primarily focused on rare cancers and solid tumors, with 74% of 2024 trial starts targeting rare cancers and 79% targeting solid tumors.
  • Pre-commercial emerging biopharma companies now account for 53% of oncology trials, up from 24% a decade ago, while commercial emerging biopharma companies contribute an additional 8%.
  • China-headquartered companies now represent 39% of oncology trial starts, up from 5% in 2015, and 84% of their trials are conducted domestically.

• Novel Therapies and Modalities:

  • Cell and gene therapies, antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), and multispecific antibodies are the most promising new modalities.
  • These novel therapies account for 35% of oncology trials in 2024.
  • CAR T-cell therapy has seen a 15% decline in trial starts since 2022, but solid tumor trials are increasing.
  • ADCs have seen a 32% annual increase in trial starts since 2019, with 284 trials started in 2024.
  • Multispecific antibody trials have more than tripled since 2019, with 14 bispecific antibodies already marketed for cancer treatment.
  • Radioligand therapies are being tested in prostate and neuroendocrine tumors, with a tripled number of trials over the last five years.

• Clinical Development Productivity:

  • The composite success rate for oncology programs rose to 7% in 2024, up from 4% in 2023.
  • Trial complexity decreased by 9% from 2019 to 2024, primarily due to a reduction in the number of trial sites and countries.
  • Phase II trials make up the largest share of oncology trial activity, with 48% of 2024 trial starts being Phase II.
  • Overall oncology clinical development productivity improved by 51% since 2019, but remains lower than the average across all disease areas.

• Patient Access and Use of Scientific Advances:

  • The global number of oncology days of therapy has increased by 3% annually since 2019.
  • Targeted therapies account for 12% of the total volume but have seen the highest growth over the last five years, increasing by 36%.
  • Biomarker testing is critical for identifying the best targeted treatment, with the average number of patients tested increasing.
  • PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors have seen a 16% decline in trial starts since 2019, but China-only studies have increased by 50%.
  • Access disparities persist, especially for Black/African American and Hispanic patients, who are underrepresented in trials despite higher cancer mortality rates.
  • Female patient representation in oncology trials is lower than male in 46% of trials, compared to 21% for males.

• Spending on Oncology Medicines:

  • Global cancer medicine spending reached $252Bn in 2024 and is projected to grow to $441Bn by 2029.
  • Spending growth is expected to slow due to the loss of exclusivity for small molecule and biologic drugs.
  • Biosimilars are providing some relief to healthcare budgets.
  • PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors are expected to see slower growth due to biosimilar competition.
  • Novel modalities like ADCs and multispecific antibodies are expected to drive significant spending growth through 2029.
  • Cell and gene therapies present high uncertainty in terms of clinical and commercial success, but their global spending could increase from $5Bn to $14Bn by 2029.

Key Information

• Geographic Shift:

  • The U.S. share of oncology trials dropped to 32% in 2024, while China has become a major player, surpassing the U.S. and Europe.
  • Europe’s share declined to 20% in 2024, down from 25% five years ago.
  • Japan and South Korea have seen declines in their shares of oncology trials.

• Regulatory and Industry Initiatives:

  • Artificial intelligence is being used to accelerate the development of new oncology therapies.
  • Regulatory support and industry collaboration are enabling the expansion of novel modalities into new indications and combinations.

• Future Outlook:

  • Spending growth will vary by region, with the highest growth expected in Pharmerging countries.
  • Seven of the top 10 tumors are expected to see double-digit spending growth over the next five years.
  • Patient access remains a challenge, particularly in low- and middle-income countries and for underrepresented demographic groups.

Conclusion

The oncology sector is experiencing a shift toward novel therapies, with greater focus on targeted treatments, cell and gene therapies, and multispecific antibodies. While clinical development productivity has improved, disparities in access and cost pressures remain significant challenges. The rise of China in oncology innovation and the decline of traditional modalities like PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors indicate a changing landscape in global oncology research and treatment.