20230118-招银国际-Silver_lining_lies_on_relaxation_in_Tier_1_cities_5页_907kb

报告摘要

China Property Sector Summary

Core Content

The China property sector experienced a hard-landing in 2022, marked by a significant decline in property sales and investment. Despite this, the document highlights that the market may see a slow recovery in 2023, primarily driven by policy relaxations in Tier 1 cities. The key investment themes for 2023 are the quick recovery in the existing home market and the property supply chain, which are supported by direct government funding.

Key Market Trends

Property Sales and Investment:
- In December 2022, property sales value and investment declined by -28% and -12% YoY, respectively, with a slight narrowing of the decline compared to November 2022.
- The full year 2022 saw property sales and investment down by -27% and -10% YoY, the lowest levels since 1999 and worse than the previous property cycle's trough in 2015.
- The document forecasts a continued decline in 2023E for property sales (-10%) and investment (-5%).
GFA Completion:
- GFA completion increased by +10% YoY in 2023E, driven by the RMB350bn home completion funding and RMB100bn for social housing.
- The completion decline narrowed to -7% in December 2022 from -20% in November 2022, indicating some policy-driven improvement.
New Starts and Inventory:
- New starts dropped by 44% YoY in December 2022 and 39% in 2022, reflecting continued overbuilding.
- Completed but unsold inventory rose to 269mn sq m in December 2022, up 2% MoM, indicating a persistent mismatch between supply and demand.
Primary and Secondary Markets:
- Primary market units sold in 30 cities showed a mixed trend, with a sharp decline in late December 2022 followed by a slight increase in early January 2023.
- Secondary market GFA sold in 8 cities showed a significant drop in late December 2022, but there was a notable increase in early January 2023.

Investment Recommendations

OUTPERFORM: The property management sector is expected to outperform developers, with recommended stocks including:
- Onewo
- Yuexiu Service
- COPH
- Ever Sunshine
Other Sectors:
- Oriental Yuhong (waterproof materials)
- BEKE (property brokerage)

Company Comparison (P/E and PB)

Company	Ticker	Last Price (LC)	Market Cap (LC mn)	TP (LC)	P/E (20A)	P/E (21A)	P/E (22E)	P/E (23E)	PB (22E)	Dividend Yield (22E)	Dividend Yield (21A)
Vanke - H	2202 HK	16.56	242,060	33.92	4.1	7.1	7.2	7.0	0.7	7%	5%
COLI	688 HK	21.35	233,673	30.49	5.5	5.3	6.1	5.8	0.6	7%	5%
Country Garden	2007 HK	2.83	78,215	13.36	1.7	1.9	4.1	4.2	0.3	13%	4%
CR Land	1109 HK	38.00	270,976	44.79	10.0	8.5	8.4	7.7	0.9	4%	4%
Longfor	960 HK	24.35	152,956	52.59	6.8	5.3	5.3	5.1	0.9	8%	6%
Shimao	813 HK	4.42	16,786	NA	1.1	1.1	1.3	1.3	0.1	26%	29%
Agile	3383 HK	2.40	10,753	NA	0.9	3.0	2.0	2.2	0.1	25%	0%
KWG	1813 HK	2.00	6,837	NA	0.9	1.3	2.3	2.3	0.1	22%	0%
Times China	1233 HK	1.47	3,090	NA	0.5	0.7	1.6	1.2	0.1	6%	0%
China SCE	1966 HK	1.00	4,223	NA	1.1	1.1	1.5	1.5	0.2	20%	0%
CIFI	884 HK	1.17	12,183	NA	1.1	1.1	1.9	1.8	0.2	16%	5%
Seazen	1030 HK	3.16	22,328	NA	2.0	1.8	3.5	3.4	0.4	0%	0%
Midea	3990 HK	13.14	17,810	NA	3.3	3.4	5.2	5.2	0.6	15%	8%
Vanke - A	000002 CH	18.74	209,565	NA	5.2	9.7	9.3	8.9	0.9	5%	4%
Poly Development	600048 CH	16.05	192,126	NA	6.6	7.0	8.0	7.3	0.9	4%	4%
Binjiang Real Estate	002244 CH	10.89	33,884	NA	14.5	11.2	9.1	7.7	1.4	2%	2%

Key Information

Policy Support: The government has provided RMB550bn in funding support, including RMB350bn for home completion and RMB100bn for social housing.
Market Outlook: The document expects the property sector to underperform in 2023, with a slow recovery expected in the new home market.
Catalyst: Policy relaxation in Tier 1 cities, especially starting with Guangzhou, is anticipated to be a key catalyst for recovery.
CMBIGM Ratings:
- BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
- HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
- SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
- NOT RATED: Stock not rated by CMBIGM.

Disclaimer

The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
The value of investments is uncertain and may fluctuate.
CMBIGM does not assume any liability for reliance on the information.
The report is intended for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced or distributed without prior consent.

Analyst Certification

The analyst certifies that all views expressed accurately reflect their personal views.
The analyst has no financial interest in the companies discussed.
CMBIGM or its affiliates have investment banking relationships with the issuers covered in the report, which may result in conflicts of interest.

Legal and Distribution Notes

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It may not be reproduced, reprinted, sold, redistributed or published without prior written consent.
Distribution restrictions apply depending on the jurisdiction (UK, US, Singapore).

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