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Economic Bulletin Summary - Issue 8 / 2016

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the economic and monetary developments in the euro area and globally as of December 2016. It outlines the ECB's monetary policy decisions, economic activity trends, inflation outlook, and financial market conditions, highlighting the impact of external factors and internal policy adjustments on the euro area's economic performance.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Economic and Monetary Assessment

• Global Economic Activity: Improved in the second half of 2016 and is expected to continue, though still below pre-crisis levels. Growth is projected to gradually increase from 2016 to 2019.
• Euro Area Growth: The economic recovery is continuing at a moderate but firming pace. Real GDP growth in the third quarter was 0.3%, with expectations of 1.7% in 2016 and 2017, and 1.6% in 2018 and 2019.
• Inflation Outlook: Annual HICP inflation in the euro area was 0.6% in November 2016, up from 0.5% in October. Headline inflation is expected to rise above 1% in the first quarter of 2017 due to base effects. Underlying inflation remains subdued, with a target of converging towards levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
• Monetary Policy: The ECB decided to extend the asset purchase programme (APP) beyond March 2017 to maintain monetary support. Net purchases will continue at €60 billion per month from April 2017, and the ECB will monitor the inflation path closely.

2. External Environment

• Global Activity: Advanced economies show stable expansion, while emerging markets (EMEs) show slight improvement. However, growth remains below pre-crisis levels.
• China's Growth: Stabilised in the third quarter, supported by strong consumption and infrastructure spending. Medium-term growth is expected to remain on a gradual downward trend.
• Oil Prices: Increased significantly after the OPEC agreement in November 2016, with Brent crude oil reaching USD 52 per barrel by December 7. This has helped reduce the drag on global inflation, though spare capacity still constrains underlying inflation.
• Trade Momentum: Global trade gained momentum in the second half of 2016, with world goods trade increasing by 0.7% in the third quarter. However, the long-term elasticity of global imports to GDP growth remains significantly lower than pre-crisis levels.

3. Financial Developments

• Sovereign Yields: Euro area sovereign yields rose, with the EONIA forward curve steepening. The increase in yields was driven by higher inflation expectations and reduced expectations of ECB policy accommodation.
• Corporate Bonds: Spreads on corporate bonds increased slightly, but remained lower than in March 2016. The rise in yields was mild, indicating no strong increase in perceived corporate risks.
• Equity Markets: Broad equity prices rose marginally, while bank equities outperformed. The European banking sector saw a 16% increase in equity prices, driven by improved earnings expectations and a less stringent Basel III framework.
• Exchange Rates: The euro remained broadly stable against major currencies, with a 5% depreciation against the USD and a 6.6% appreciation against the Japanese yen.

4. Structural and Policy Considerations

• Structural Reforms: The economic recovery in the euro area is supported by past structural reforms and improved employment. However, the pace of reform implementation remains a drag on growth.
• Monetary Policy Adjustments: The ECB adjusted the parameters of the APP in January 2017, including broadening the maturity range of eligible securities and allowing purchases of securities with yields below the deposit facility rate.
• Fiscal Policy: The ECB expects fiscal stimulus to support domestic demand in the euro area and other economies, but fiscal consolidation in some countries may hinder growth.

Boxes Highlights

1. Impact of OPEC Agreement on Oil Market: The OPEC agreement in November 2016 led to a significant rise in oil prices, which is expected to support inflation in the short to medium term.
2. Liquidity Conditions and Monetary Policy Operations: The Eurosystem's expanded APP contributed to increased liquidity in the banking sector, with excess liquidity rising by €147 billion during the review period.
3. Structural Indicators of the Euro Area Business Environment: Indicates a moderate but firming recovery, with improved corporate profitability and credit conditions.
4. Assessing the Impact of Housing Costs on HICP Inflation: Housing costs remain a significant factor in inflation, though there is no clear upward trend in underlying inflation yet.
5. Review of Draft Budgetary Plans for 2017: The ECB reviews the budgetary situation and plans for the euro area, noting the importance of fiscal stimulus in supporting demand.

Articles Highlights

1. Impact of Uncertainty on Activity in the Euro Area: Uncertainty, particularly around the UK referendum and US election, has affected investment and consumption, though the recovery remains steady.
2. OTC Derivative Reforms: Reviews the progress and gaps in OTC derivative reforms, which are aimed at improving transparency and stability in financial markets.

Statistics Highlights

• Euro Area Real GDP Growth: 0.3% in Q3 2016, expected to grow at 1.7% in 2016 and 2017, and 1.6% in 2018 and 2019.
• HICP Inflation: 0.6% in November 2016, projected to rise to 1.3% in 2017, 1.5% in 2018, and 1.7% in 2019.
• Global GDP Growth: Excluding the euro area, projected to increase from 3.0% in 2016 to 3.8% in 2019.
• Euro Area Sovereign Bond Yields: Increased from early September, with ten-year yields rising by 50 basis points to just above 1%.
• EONIA Forward Curve: Steepened significantly, with the steepness increasing by around 60 basis points. The curve turned flat, indicating no further expected rate cuts by the ECB.

Conclusion

The ECB remains committed to maintaining monetary support to ensure sustained inflation convergence towards 2% over the medium term. While global and euro area growth is expected to strengthen, risks remain tilted to the downside, particularly for EMEs. The extension of the APP and adjustments to its parameters are designed to ensure continued favourable financial conditions and support the recovery. Inflation is expected to gradually increase, driven by base effects and improving economic activity, but underlying inflationary pressures remain subdued.