2017年-世界发展银行全球_Myanmar_Public_Expenditure_Review_2017___Fiscal_Space_for_Economic_Growth_141页_6mb

Myanmar Public Expenditure Review 2017: Fiscal Space for Economic Growth

Core Content

This report, the second Public Expenditure Review (PER) for Myanmar, evaluates the country's fiscal space and provides policy recommendations to enhance public services and infrastructure investment. It highlights the challenges in generating sufficient revenue, managing public debt, and improving the efficiency of public spending.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Fiscal Space and Economic Growth

• Fiscal Space Constraints: Myanmar's fiscal space is limited due to a small revenue base (10–12% of GDP), spending inefficiencies, and limited financing options.
• Growth Dependence on Services and Infrastructure: Sustained economic growth relies on improvements in public services and infrastructure.
• Current Spending Levels: General Government spending is at 15% of GDP, significantly below the 20% average for similar countries.
• Fiscal Deficit: The country has maintained fiscal deficits below 3% of GDP since 2011, but recent economic shocks (e.g., falling gas prices, Cyclone Komen) have increased risks to growth.
• Fiscal Strategy Options:
  • Reallocating Resources: Shift spending from less important areas to priority sectors (e.g., education, health).
  • Expanding Fiscal Envelope: Increase revenue through tax reforms and manage public debt more proactively.
  • Integrated Approach: Combine both reallocation and expansion of fiscal space to build resilience and support growth.

2. Capital Spending Efficiency

• Low and Declining Public Investment: Public capital spending is low and falling, well below regional and global standards, and insufficient to meet infrastructure needs.
• Inefficient Allocation: Spending is not directed to growth priorities, with a decline in transport and energy investments, and an increase in SEE (State Economic Enterprises) spending.
• Productive Inefficiencies: Capital projects are delayed and over-budget due to poor management, leading to significant revenue leakage.
• Stalled Projects: Over two-thirds of large projects in the Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Energy are stalled, with less than 30% of funds disbursed after 8 years.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Systematically compile and report capital spending by Union Ministries in States and Regions.
  • Reallocate spending towards energy and transport.
  • Reprioritize SEE capital expenditure towards public goods.
  • Strengthen PIM (Public Investment Management) processes.

3. Fiscal Impact of State Economic Enterprises (SEEs)

• SEEs and Fiscal Sustainability: SEEs contribute to the Union Budget but also require substantial subsidies, which strain public finances.
• SEEs' Role in Public Spending: SEEs account for 24% of government capital spending in 2014/15, with a sharp increase in heavy industry.
• Recommendations:
  • Reform SEE financial performance monitoring.
  • Develop a comprehensive framework for SEE management.
  • Adjust Ministry of Defense allocations to accommodate increased spending on social and economic services.
  • Ensure that SEE reforms are integrated with broader fiscal strategies.

4. Tax System Efficiency

• Tax Revenue Base: Tax revenue is below potential due to administrative capacity and structural issues like the informal economy.
• Tax Reforms Needed: The report emphasizes the need for tax reforms to reduce revenue leakage and improve efficiency.
• Key Tax Reforms:
  • Improve tax administration and procedures.
  • Address short and medium-term revenue leakage.
  • Align tax policies with international standards.
• Tax Expenditures: Estimated at around 1.5% of GDP, with potential for further reduction through reform.

5. Public Debt Management

• Debt Sustainability: Myanmar's public debt levels are moderate, but risks exist due to fiscal slippages and economic volatility.
• Debt Management Framework: The report outlines a medium-term debt strategy and recommends improving domestic debt market development.
• Debt Cost and Risk Indicators: The government needs to proactively manage debt to reduce costs and risks to the public debt portfolio.
• Fiscal Transfers and Market Confidence: Enhancing fiscal transparency and communication is essential to sustain market confidence.

Policy Options

Conclusion

The PER emphasizes the need for a comprehensive and integrated fiscal strategy to expand the budget envelope and reallocate resources effectively. This includes improving tax efficiency, enhancing public investment management, and reforming SEE operations to support long-term growth and fiscal sustainability. The report also highlights the importance of building fiscal buffers and ensuring inclusive regional development.