高盛-新兴市场-投资策略-驱动2019年良好表现的8大主题-20181126-30页_1mb

EM Strategy Views Summary

Core Content

This report outlines the Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research outlook for Emerging Markets (EM) in 2019, focusing on eight key themes that could drive outperformance. The analysis highlights the interplay between macroeconomic conditions, asset class performance, and market sentiment, particularly in light of the US slowdown and the broader global economic environment.

Main Themes

1. US Slowdown and EM Impact

• The US economy is expected to slow from a high base, which may not significantly pressure EM fundamentals.
• EM assets are likely to face less downside risk than previously anticipated, as market pricing already incorporates the expected slowdown.
• The focus should be on potential revisions to the consensus growth forecast rather than the slowdown itself.
• US equity volatility has coincided with EM equity and credit sell-offs, suggesting a contingent relationship between US and EM performance.

2. Positive Base Case with Variable Path

• EM asset performance is expected to be mixed in 2019, with several "up" months likely even if the year is challenging overall.
• The EM cross-asset benchmark historically shows a higher number of positive return months during tough years.
• The 2014 precedent suggests that even after a difficult year, EM assets can experience a rebound with a strong number of positive months.

3. Growth/Rates Matrix and Asset Fragility

• Weaker growth and higher US rates are the main macro risks for EM.
• Equity appears more resilient than credit in this environment, with credit being more fragile.
• FX and local bonds are in between, with FX showing more downside skew in tough macro conditions.
• EM local bonds may offer better risk/reward than USD-denominated bonds, despite the potential for lower returns.

4. Early Cycle Stories in EM Equities

• EM equities with low profit margins continue to outperform relative to those with full margins.
• This trend has been consistent across EM markets, especially in the context of global growth concerns.
• Several EMs, including Indonesia, Chile, South Africa, and the Philippines, show early cycle characteristics.
• Brazil is expected to underperform in 2019 due to its relatively weak position.

5. Local Bonds vs. Credit

• EM local bonds offer a better risk/reward than hard currency bonds.
• The yield curve in commodity-exporting EMs has widened, suggesting potential for duration trades.
• EM local bonds are expected to yield over 5% in total returns over the next 12 months.
• Credit drawdowns may present tactical buying opportunities, but the macro environment suggests limited upside.

6. Commodity Cycle and FX Performance

• Commodity-linked FX has underperformed physical commodities since mid-2017, but total returns have been relatively stable.
• Carry from EM local bonds provides a cushion against commodity price declines.
• EM FX in COP, ZAR, RUB, and CLP is expected to yield positive returns due to the commodity cycle and weaker USD.

7. Market Rotation

• Relative performance leadership in EM rotates significantly from year to year.
• Weak performers in one year often become strong performers in the next.
• Countries like Brazil, Russia, and Turkey are expected to underperform in 2019, while South Africa, Indonesia, and the Philippines may see a return to outperformance.

8. China: A Known Risk with Declining FX Spillovers

• China's growth and trade concerns remain a key macro risk for EM.
• EM FX and local bonds are less correlated with the CNY than in recent years.
• While EM equities are still correlated with CNY movements, local bonds are expected to benefit more from growth improvement in China.

Key Information

• US Growth and Rates: The consensus view is of weaker US growth and higher rates, which may not be as negative for EM as previously feared.
• EM Cross-Asset Benchmark: EM assets are expected to have a mix of positive and negative months in 2019, with a strong base case for positive returns.
• Growth Expectations: EM growth is forecast to improve early in 2019, with a flattening trend as the year progresses.
• Asset Class Resilience: Equity appears more resilient than credit in a weak growth and rising rate environment.
• FX Performance: EM FX in commodity-exporting countries is expected to perform well due to the commodity cycle and USD weakness.
• Market Rotation: EM leadership is expected to rotate, with certain countries likely to outperform while others underperform.
• China Impact: While China remains a key risk, its influence on EM FX and local bonds has decreased, and equities may benefit more from growth improvement.

Strategic Takeaways

• Relative Value Opportunities: The report emphasizes the importance of relative value strategies in EM.
• Tactical Opportunities: Local bonds and commodity-linked FX may offer better risk/reward profiles.
• Diversification: EM assets are expected to show a mix of performance, with some countries likely to outperform others.
• Risk Management: Credit and FX are more sensitive to macro shifts, while equities and local bonds may offer more stability.