> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** 宏观经济 # 宏观经济周报 # 2026年第六周 # 一、中国宏观 高频：本周ICHI综合景气指数仍保持在接近100的边界区间运行，收缩幅度较上周有所收敛，显示经济运行总体保持平稳。从分项结构看，经济景气呈现出分化中趋稳的特征。消费景气指数仍处于收缩区间，但指数仍接近荣枯线，更多反映阶段性扩张后的缓步调整，居民消费韧性仍在。投资景气指数回升至扩张区间，显示企业投资活动在短暂观望后有所修复，投资端对经济的支撑作用继续显现，成为当前内需的重要稳定力量。出口景气指数升至扩张区间，外需边际改善迹象初现，尽管全球需求仍面临不确定性，但短期压力有所缓和，外贸运行保持总体平稳。生产景气指数维持在扩张区间，显示年初节后工业生产活动加快恢复，生产端运行节奏稳步提升，对经济形成基础性支撑。总体来看，ICHI综合景气指数虽小幅回落，但经济运行的稳定性和韧性并未削弱。消费端在节后进入自然调整期，投资与出口率先企稳回升，生产保持扩张态势，显示经济内生动能仍在积蓄。当前经济运行更多体现为结构性调整中的稳中有进，为后续走势夯实基础。 2025年，全国规模以上工业企业利润较上年增长 $0.6\%$ ，规上工业企业利润止跌回升，核心驱动力来自新动能扩张与结构优化，工业体系正由修复走向升级。一是利润整体企稳回升，修复具备结构支撑。全年规上工业利润同比增长 $0.6\%$ ，扭转连续三年下降态势。其中，制造业利润增速回升至 $5.0\%$ ，12月当月利润由负转正，显示盈利修复具有一定延续性，但仍呈现行业分化。二是装备制造与高技术制造成为利润压舱石。装备制造业利润增长 $7.7\%$ ，对整体利润增长贡献最大，占比升至近四成；高技术制造业利润增长 $13.3\%$ ，半导体、智能设备、生物医药等领域利润高增，成为工业向高端跃迁的核心引擎。三是传统产业提质升级与主体结构改善增强韧性并行。传统行业中生物基、绿色化、高附加值方向利润显著高于行业均值。中小企业、外资企业利润由负转正，股份制和国企降幅收窄，表明工业利润改善正从点状突破走向面上扩散。 2026年2月2日 徐婕，博士 (852) 2683 3777 jessica.xu@icbci.com 周烨 (852) 2683 3232 dorothy.zhou@icbci.com 图1：ICHI指数反映当下经济运行的冷热程度 资料来源：Wind、iFinD 以及工银国际计算 # 二、全球宏观 1月28日，加拿大央行宣布维持基准利率在 $2.25\%$ 不变，这是连续第二次政策会议按兵不动，结果符合市场普遍预期。央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆指出，当前全球贸易环境、特别是美国贸易政策带来的不确定性仍然较高，这使得未来利率路径的方向和时机变得难以判断。加拿大央行强调，尽管面临外部风险，但在当前经济表现与预测基本一致的前提下，现行利率水平仍被认为是“适宜”的。最新的经济预测显示，预计2025年经济增速将高于此前预估，2026年和2027年也将保持温和增长。 1月29日，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）公布1月议息会议结果，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 $3.50\% - 3.75\%$ 不变，符合市场普遍预期。此前，美联储已在2025年9月至12月期间连续三次降息，本次会议选择暂停调整，标志着政策进入阶段性观望期。从会议声明来看，美联储对经济基本面的表述较前次略有改善。声明中删除了“就业下行风险上升”的相关措辞，转而强调经济仍在“稳步扩张”，并指出失业率已出现企稳迹象；通胀方面，美联储继续认为通胀水平“仍略高于目标”，但并未强化对通胀上行风险的担忧。整体而言，声明语气显示出政策制定者对当前经济韧性的认可，同时保持对通胀回落进程的耐心观察。 # 三、市场聚焦 1月30日，美国经济分析局公布数据显示，美国2025年11月贸易逆差大幅扩大至568亿美元，较10月的294亿美元激增 $94.6\%$ ，为1992年以来单月环比增幅最大。此次逆差上升主要源于进口反弹与出口下滑的共同作用。出口总额环比下降 $3.6\%$ ，而进口总额则增长约 $5\%$ 。与主要贸易伙伴中，与欧盟的商品 贸易逆差增加约82亿美元，占整体逆差扩大约三分之一的份额。 1月30日，日本总务省公布的东京1月CPI数据显示，核心CPI（剔除生鲜食品）同比上涨 $2.0\%$ ，低于市场预期的 $2.2\%$ 和上月的 $2.3\%$ ；更广义的核心CPI（剔除生鲜食品及能源）同比上涨 $2.4\%$ ，也低于预期的 $2.6\%$ 及前值的 $2.6\%$ 。总体CPI同比上涨 $1.5\%$ ，同样低于市场预期的 $1.7\%$ 与前值 $2.0\%$ 。数据显示东京通胀已连续两个月回落。 # 重要披露 # 工银国际的股票评级 超越基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）超越相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 中性：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数在-20%至20%以内 落后基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）落后相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 暂无评级：分析师目前对于预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数的变化幅度无法给出确信的判断 # 工银国际是中国工商银行的全资子公司 # 如有需要，可向工银国际索取进一步资料。 本报告所载的意见纯粹是分析员对有关证券或发行人的个人看法；彼以往、现在或未来并无就其研究报告所提供的特别建议或所表达的意见直接或间接收取任何报酬。 # 工银国际证券有限公司 地址：香港中环花园道3号中国工商银行大厦37楼电话：(852)26833888传真：(852)26833900 # 一般披露 主要负责撰写本研究报告全部或部份内容的分析师在此声明：(i)本研究报告的任何观点均精准地反映了上述(每位)分析师个人对目标证券和发行人的看法；及(ii)该分析师所得报酬的任何组成部分无论是在过去、现在及将来均不会直接或间接地与研究报告所表述的具体观点相联系。 本研究报告所载资料由工银国际证券有限公司编制和发表。 此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用，而我们在该等司法管辖范围并无相关注册或牌照，且在该等司法管辖范围内分发、发布、提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致工银国际证券有限公司、集团成员及/或其联属方(统称“工银国际”或“我们”)需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求。仅就本文件而言，此研究报告不应被视为是一种邀约或邀请购入或出售任何文中引述之证券。 本研究报告 (i) 供阁下作个人参考之用；(ii) 若要约发行在任何司法管辖区为违法，本研究报告不应诠释为出售证券的要约或招揽购买证券的要约；(iii) 本研究报告的资料可能基于来自我们认为可靠的第三方来源但并未获工银国际独立核实。本研究报告仅提供一般参考资料，并非为提供个人投资意见，也没有考虑个别人士的具体投资目的、财务状况和特定需要。在准备本研究报告时，工银国际并无进行任何确保本研究报告中提及的证券适合任一特定投资者的步骤。阁下应自行决定涉及本研究报告提及的证券的所有交易，并因应阁下的财务情况、投资经验及投资目的，衡量每一交易是否适合阁下。本研究报告可能含有来自第三方的资料，包括信贷评级机构的评级；除非事先获第三方的书面许可，不得以任何形式分发该第三方材料。第三方材料供应者不保证任何资料(包括评级)的准确性、完整性、时间性或是否可以使用，工银国际和第三方材料供应者无论什么原因也不会就误差或遗漏（无论是不是因为疏忽）承担责任，同时也不会就因使用该材料而产生的结果承担责任。第三方材料供应者并无作出任何明确或隐含的保证，包括但不限于某一特殊目的或用途的可销性或适用性保证。第三方材料供应者毋须就使用这些材料(包括评级)负上任何直接、间接、附带、惩戒性、补偿性、惩罚性、特殊或相应损害赔偿、讼费、开支、法律费用或损失(包括失去的收入或利润及机会成本)的法律责任。信贷评级为意见陈述，并非事实陈述，或购买、持有或销售证券的推荐意见，也并非就证券的适当性或证券投资的适当的引导，不应作为第三方材料供应者的投资意见般倚赖。 本研究报告所载数据可能描述过往表现或根据过往表现作出的模拟情况，这些过往表现或模拟情况并非未来表现的可靠指标。若数据含有未来表现的指针，该预测不可作为未来表现的可靠指标。此外，模拟情况乃基于模型及简化的假设推断，当中可能有过份简化的情况，也不反映未来的回报的分派。本研究报告所述的事实以及当中表达的观点、估计、预测和推测以本研究报告的日期为准，可以在没有通知的情况下有所更改。工银国际并无就本研究报告所载数据发表声明或作出明确或隐含的保证，除非另外获工银国际同意外，阁下亦不应倚赖本研究报告所载数据。在没有和适用于工银国际且不时修订、更改或替代的证券及期货事务监察委员会持牌人或注册人操守准则的义务不一致的情况下，工银国际概不就因使用或倚赖本研究报告或其材料而产生或引致的直接、间接或相应损失或损害赔偿承担法律责任。本研究报告并非为提供个人专业意见(包括但不限于会计、法律或税务意见或投资的推荐意见)，阁下也不应作为专业意见般倚赖；不可取代阁下的判断。除非另外获工银国际同意外，工银国际非阁下的顾问，也不就财务或其它后果承担受信责任或法律责任。投资者须考虑本研究报告的资料或观点是否适合他的特定情况，若适用，应寻求专业意见，包括税务意见、投资限制意见或任何法律或监管意见。 本报告不应被视为阐明或建议与投资决定相关的所有直接或间接风险。工银国际出版很多不同种类的研究产品，其中包括基本面分析、计量分析和短期买卖点子；一类研究产品所含的观点有别于其它种类的研究产品所含的观点，不论是因为不同时间性、方法或其它因素。 准备本研究报告的分析师的报酬由研究部门的管理层及工银国际的高级管理层全权决定。分析师的报酬并不取决于工银国际的企业融资业务的收入，但可能和工银国际企业融资业务的整体总收入联系，而当中包含企业融资、销售及交易业务。 若工银国际以外的金融机构或实体(包括但不限于任何信息提供商)发送本研究报告，则由该金融机构或实体为此发送行为承担全部责任。该发送本研究报告的金融机构的客户应联系该机构如果他们决定进行相关证券的交易。该发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体的客户应直接联系该机构或实体以要求获悉本研究报告提及的证券更详细的信息。本研究报告不构成工银国际向发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体之客户(其并非工银国际的客户)提供的投资意见，工银国际及其各高级职员、董事和员工亦不为前述金融机构或实体之客户因使用本研究报告或其裁明的内容产生的直接或间接损失承担任何责任。 工银国际透过其合规政策及程序（包括但不限于利益冲突、中国墙和保密政策）以及中国墙的维护及雇员培训管理有关其研究活动及研究报告发布的冲突。 本研究报告仅发送给阁下供参考，在没有工银国际的事先书面同意的情况下，不得以任何方式翻印或分发本研究报告的任何部份给其它人士。 收到本研究报告即等同阁下知悉并同意以上条款。 工银国际证券有限公司2026版权所有。保留一切权利。 # UK This communication is sent on behalf of ICBC International Securities Limited, being a subsidiary of ICBC International Holdings Limited, a limited liability company incorporated in Hong Kong (collectively with other subsidiaries of ICBC International Holdings Limited, the "ICBCI Group"). 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