IMF：2024年10月世界经济展望报告_173页_9mb

World Economic Outlook Summary: Policy Pivot, Rising Threats (2024, October)

Core Content

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) for 2024 highlights the global battle against inflation, which has largely been won, but underscores the need for a policy triple pivot to address emerging challenges. The report outlines three key policy shifts: monetary policy normalization, fiscal consolidation, and structural reforms, all aimed at ensuring long-term economic stability and growth.

Main Views

1. Global Inflation Outlook

• Headline inflation has declined significantly from its peak of 9.4% YoY in Q3 2022 to an expected 3.5% by the end of 2025, below the pre-pandemic average of 3.6%.
• Despite global monetary tightening, the global economy has remained resilient, avoiding a recession.
• Growth is projected to remain stable at 3.2% for 2024 and 2025, though some low-income developing countries face downside revisions due to increased conflicts.

2. Risks to the Outlook

• Downside risks are rising, including:
  • Escalation of regional conflicts
  • Monetary policy remaining too tight
  • Resurgence of financial volatility
  • Deepening growth slowdown in China
  • Continued protectionist policies
• The global economy is now facing persistent supply disruptions from climate, health, and geopolitical factors.

3. Policy Triple Pivot

• Monetary Policy Pivot:
  • Major central banks in advanced economies are cutting policy rates to move toward neutral stance.
  • This helps support economic activity amid weakness in labor markets and rising unemployment.
  • It also mitigates downside risks.
• Fiscal Policy Pivot:
  • Fiscal space is critical for financial stability.
  • Debt dynamics need stabilization, and fiscal buffers must be rebuilt.
  • Primary balances in many countries need improvement.
  • Gradual and credible multiyear adjustments are essential to avoid disorderly market-imposed corrections.
• Structural Reform Pivot:
  • Structural reforms are necessary to improve growth prospects and productivity.
  • These reforms are crucial to address global challenges such as aging populations, climate transition, increased resilience, and improving the lives of the vulnerable.
  • However, structural reforms face significant social resistance, especially in emerging markets and developing economies.
  • Successful reforms require:
    • Trust-building between the government and its citizens.
    • Proper compensatory measures to address distributional impacts.
    • Clear communication and inclusive policy design.

Key Information

Assumptions for Projections

• Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at their average levels from July 30 to August 27, 2024, except for those in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism II.
• Oil prices are expected to average $81.29 per barrel in 2024 and $72.84 per barrel in 2025.
• Interest rates are projected to be:
  • U.S. 3-month bond yield: 5.4% in 2024, 3.9% in 2025.
  • Euro Area 3-month bond yield: 3.5% in 2024, 2.8% in 2025.
  • Japan 3-month bond yield: 0.1% in 2024, 0.5% in 2025.
  • U.S. 10-year bond yield: 4.1% in 2024, 3.5% in 2025.
  • Euro Area 10-year bond yield: 2.4% in 2024, 2.5% in 2025.
  • Japan 10-year bond yield: 1.0% in 2024, 1.3% in 2025.

New Features in the Report

• Updated purchasing-power-parity (PPP) weights and GDP estimates following the 2021 World Bank survey.
• Fiscal year data for Bangladesh is now used in country group aggregates.
• Zimbabwe has updated its national accounts with the introduction of the Zimbabwe gold currency.

Supporting Analyses and Case Studies

• Chapter 1 discusses the global economic outlook, highlighting uncertainty and policy shifts.
• Chapter 2 analyzes the recent inflation episode, focusing on monetary policy reactions, inflation dynamics, and the role of central bank balance sheets.
• Chapter 3 explores the social acceptability of structural reforms, with insights from 11 country cases, and emphasizes the importance of communication, trust, and compensatory measures.

Additional Notes

• The WEO is a semiannual publication by the IMF, with a spring and fall release.
• Data and analysis are based on the IMF WEO database, with updates and revisions made as new information becomes available.
• The report includes tables and figures for growth, inflation, fiscal indicators, and external debt.
• The IMF staff has used estimates and projections to fill gaps where actual data is unavailable.
• The WEO serves as a key tool for IMF surveillance, international financial market analysis, and global economic system monitoring.

Conclusion

The WEO underscores that while global inflation has declined, the economic outlook remains uncertain. A policy triple pivot is essential to address ongoing risks and long-term challenges. The report calls for gradual fiscal adjustments, monetary normalization, and ambitious structural reforms to sustain growth, improve productivity, and enhance resilience. Social acceptability of reforms is crucial, and trust and inclusive policies are necessary to ensure their success.