2000年-世界发展银行全球_Achieving_Faster_Economic_Growth_in_Tunisia_35页_1mb

Summary of "Achieving Faster Economic Growth in Tunisia"

Core Content

This working paper by Auguste T. Kouamé from the World Bank analyzes the structural changes required for Tunisia to achieve faster economic growth and converge to OECD income levels over the next 25 years. It outlines a framework for understanding long-term growth potential and policy implications for achieving this goal.

Main Points

1. Economic Growth Performance

• Tunisia has achieved an average real GDP growth of 5.2% from 1961 to 1999, one of the strongest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
• Real per capita income has increased to about 2.5 times its level from three decades ago.
• At current growth rates, Tunisia is likely to graduate from a lower-middle-income to an upper-middle-income country.

2. Growth Goals and Challenges

• Tunisia's IXth development plan aims to join the OECD in the early 21st century.
• To achieve this, long-term GDP growth must increase to 6.6–8.7%.
• Short-term growth is expected to remain around 4–6%, but faster growth is needed for long-term convergence.

3. Sector Contributions

• The services sector is the largest contributor to GDP, making up ~55% of GDP.
• Agriculture has historically had a strong influence on the business cycle, with GDP growth fluctuating significantly due to its output.
• Industry has had a modest contribution to GDP growth, though manufacturing is a key export sector.
• Manufacturing sub-sectors (textiles and mechanical/electrical equipment) contribute significantly to exports but less to GDP growth due to heavy reliance on imported inputs.

4. Factor Contributions

• The Cobb-Douglas production function was used to estimate the contribution of capital, labor, and total factor productivity (TFP) to GDP growth.
• From 1961–99, capital accumulation was the largest driver of growth, contributing about 50%, followed by labor (25%) and TFP (25%).
• TFP growth has been relatively low, but it has improved in recent years, reaching 2.0% in 1997–99.
• TFP growth in Tunisia has been lower than in fast-growing economies like Singapore, Chile, and Ireland, but comparable to some others.

5. Demand Components

• Domestic demand contributed to GDP growth, but its share has declined over time.
• Foreign demand has consistently contributed more than domestic demand, and its share in GDP has increased from 27% (1961–73) to 44% (1997–99).
• Imports have grown rapidly due to tariff reductions under the EU Association Agreement, which has constrained domestic manufacturing competitiveness.

6. Policy Implications

• To achieve faster growth, Tunisia needs to implement structural reforms across various sectors.
• Key reforms include:
  • Increasing the investment to GDP ratio from its current level to 30–35%, driven mainly by private investment.
  • Improving education and skill formation, increasing secondary education years from 1 to 2 by 2005 and 2.3 by 2015.
  • Consolidating health achievements to reduce the fertility rate to near 2.
  • Maintaining a stable macroeconomic framework and reducing the budget deficit from 3–4% to 2% (2000–05), 1% (2005–15), and zero (2015–25).
  • Reducing trade tax share from ~20% to ~1% (EU levels) or ~8% (OECD levels).
• TFP growth must be sustained at above 2% to ensure the feasibility of long-term growth goals.

Key Information

• Business Cycle: Tunisia's GDP growth has been volatile, with fluctuations between -1.4% and 17.7% over 1962–1999. The business cycle has shown decreasing amplitudes over time.
• Agricultural Influence: Agricultural output strongly influences the business cycle, with 6 out of 8 cycle troughs coinciding with agricultural contractions.
• Sector Volatility: The impact of agricultural growth on GDP is asymmetric, with negative shocks having a larger effect than positive ones.
• Import Growth: The implementation of the EU Association Agreement has led to increased imports, affecting domestic demand and competitiveness.
• Convergence Goal: To catch up with lower-income OECD countries by 2025, Tunisia needs to achieve a per capita GDP of about $10,000, which would take 60 years at current growth rates.
• Structural Changes: Needed reforms include improving the business environment, enhancing education and skills, consolidating health outcomes, and reducing fiscal and trade distortions.

Conclusion

To meet its long-term growth objectives and join the OECD, Tunisia must implement sustained structural reforms. These reforms should focus on investment quality, education and skill development, health improvements, and macroeconomic stability. The paper emphasizes that TFP growth and private investment will be crucial in achieving these goals.