2015年-世界发展银行全球_Country_Partnership_Framework_for_the_Repbulic_of_El_Salvador_for_the_Period_FY2016-FY2019_100页_2mb

Summary of the World Bank Group Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for El Salvador (FY2016-FY2019)

Core Content

The World Bank Group (WBG) has developed a Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for El Salvador for the fiscal years 2016–2019, aiming to promote inclusive growth and resilience by addressing key development challenges. The CPF is aligned with the Government’s Five-Year Development Plan (2014–2019), which emphasizes productive employment, education with inclusion and social equity, and citizen security.

El Salvador, the smallest and most densely populated country in Central America, has made progress in social and political development since the end of the Civil War in 1992. It has achieved the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) for child mortality reduction and improved access to water and sanitation. However, poverty remains high, with 35% of the population living below the international poverty line (US$4/day) and 15% in extreme poverty (US$2.5/day). The country has experienced slow growth, averaging less than 1% per capita from 1996–2001 and 1.5% since 2001, placing it among the slowest growing economies in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC).

Key Development Challenges

The CPF identifies three major vicious circles that hinder growth and shared prosperity:

1. Low growth and high violence: Violence negatively affects the business climate, investment, and economic growth. Low growth reduces economic opportunities, leading to higher crime rates, which in turn perpetuate the cycle.
2. Low growth and high migration/remittances: Limited economic opportunities and high crime rates push people to migrate. Remittances increase reservation wages and reduce labor force participation, especially among women, and may also reduce savings and investment.
3. Low growth, low savings, and low investment: The savings rate from remittances is lower than from non-remittance income, resulting in a lower aggregate savings rate and constrained investment, which further limits growth.

Proposed CPF Objectives

The WBG’s proposed CPF focuses on six key areas:

• Building capacity to create safer communities for economic development
• Improving secondary-school attainment
• Enhancing youth employability and skills
• Increasing access to finance
• Promoting the efficiency of public spending
• Building capacity to manage disasters and environmental challenges

These objectives are designed to break the vicious circles and support sustainable growth and resilience.

Main Points and Key Information

Poverty and Shared Prosperity

• Poverty has remained persistently high, with around 41% of the population in poverty (national definition) and 35% in extreme poverty (international line).
• The poorest 40% have experienced slower income growth compared to LAC as a whole, despite some progress in reducing inequality.
• The Gini coefficient decreased from 0.47 in the early 2000s to 0.42 in 2012, but inequality is still higher than the LAC average.
• Women and youth, particularly in rural and less educated areas, face significant disparities in poverty outcomes.

Growth, Inclusion, and Sustainability

• El Salvador has experienced anemic growth, with per capita GDP growth below regional and peer country averages.
• Investment rates are extremely low, averaging 15% of GDP since 1990, and are among the lowest globally.
• Total factor productivity growth has remained below 0.2% per year, limiting the potential for economic expansion.
• The education system produces a large number of unskilled workers, with only 40% of young adults (ages 25–29) completing high school.
• Migration and remittances are significant, with over 16% of GDP coming from remittances. This has led to a shift in labor force participation and reduced domestic investment.

Gender and Social Inclusion

• Gender disparities persist, with lower labor force participation among women, especially in rural and less educated areas.
• The "ninis" (neither working nor studying) are more prevalent among women, with 35% of women aged 15–24 being ninis compared to 10% of men.
• Female labor force participation is below the LAC average, and wage gaps are among the lowest in the region, but this does not reflect full inclusion in the economy.
• Gender-related issues such as teen pregnancy, reproductive health, and violence against women remain significant challenges.

Fiscal and Economic Sustainability

• El Salvador’s fiscal deficit and public debt are concerns due to low growth and high remittances.
• The country requires fiscal adjustment of between 1.5% and 3.5% of GDP to stabilize debt levels.
• Disaster risk is high, with annual losses estimated at around 2.5% of GDP. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters.

WBG Engagement

• The CPF is informed by the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) and aims to provide a modest but catalytic role in supporting El Salvador’s development.
• The CPF emphasizes policy levers that can break the vicious circles and promote sustainable development.
• The WBG will support the Government’s priorities through technical assistance, analytical work, and investment in key sectors.

Conclusion

The CPF for El Salvador seeks to address the country’s deep-rooted challenges by focusing on inclusive growth, resilience, and sustainable development. It highlights the need for policy reforms, investment in education and labor markets, and improved fiscal management to break the cycles of low growth and poverty. The framework is designed to support El Salvador’s transition to a more productive, educated, and safe society.