NBER-通货膨胀预期与加密货币投资_56页_4mb

Inflation Expectation and Cryptocurrency Investment explores the relationship between household inflation expectations and individual cryptocurrency purchases, using data from India and its cryptocurrency market. The study, based on a large-scale dataset from a leading Indian exchange combined with the Reserve Bank of India's Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH), provides direct evidence that higher inflation expectations drive increased investment in specific cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin and Tether (USDT), which serve as inflation hedges.

Key findings show that a 1 percentage point increase in inflation expectations is associated with approximately 1,000 INR increase in net cryptocurrency purchases per investor. The effect is causal and robust after controlling for speculation motives. Higher inflation expectations also attract new investors, with a 1 percentage point increase linked to about 1,000 new customers joining the exchange. The relationship is heterogeneous: effects are concentrated in Bitcoin and Tether, and stronger in semi-urban areas; demographic factors like age and gender show no significant differences in investment decisions. The study confirms cryptocurrencies as inflation hedges, rationalizing their high adoption in developing economies without dominant global currencies.

Methodology employs Fama-MacBeth regressions and instrumental variable approaches, supported by robustness checks using alternative IVs and placebo tests. This research advances understanding of cryptocurrency demand, linking it to inflation hedging motives rather than speculative or payment purposes.

In summary, the paper offers rigorous empirical support for cryptocurrencies as inflation-hedging assets in emerging markets, contributing to literature on asset pricing and consumer behavior.