2020电信业的机遇与挑战：机遇延续，挑战更多（英文版）_28页_5mb

2020: Same Hopes, More Fears

Core Content

This document is a Black & White paper commissioned by Vertiv in February 2020, based on 451 Research survey data from 105 global telecom operators. It analyzes the hopes and fears of the telecom industry regarding 5G and edge computing in the context of their business cases, energy costs, and infrastructure readiness. The paper highlights that while 5G is progressing faster than anticipated, the challenges associated with energy consumption and the need for shared infrastructure models remain significant.

Main Points

5G Deployment

• 5G has taken off faster than expected, with over 86% of operators planning to launch commercial 5G services by 2020 or 2021.
• The initial 5G services are largely evolved versions of 4G services, focusing on enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB).
• Release 15 of the 5G standard is centered on eMBB, while Release 16 will bring URLLC and mMTC, along with V2X and network slicing.
• North America is expected to lead in early 5G deployment, with 47% of operators aiming for total 5G coverage by 2025-2027.
• The majority of operators (over 78%) expect total 5G coverage by 2028 or later, indicating a slow global rollout.

5G Energy Challenges

• 94% of operators expect 5G and edge computing deployments to increase overall energy costs.
• Energy costs constitute 20–40% of network opex, making energy efficiency a critical factor in the business viability of 5G.
• Vertiv estimates that 5G could increase total network energy consumption by 150–170% by 2026.
• The China Unicom Research Institute predicts that 5G power bills could be over 3x those of 4G.
• Mitigation strategies include:
  • Network infrastructure energy savings (e.g., base stations with sleep mode)
  • Ongoing energy audits
  • AI/deep learning solutions with DCIM
  • Reducing AC to DC conversion
  • Upgrading batteries from VRLA to Li-Lion
  • New cooling techniques (e.g., immersion cooling, evaporative cooling)

Edge Computing and MEC

• 99% of operators are either investigating or deploying MEC, indicating strong interest in edge computing.
• MEC is seen as a critical enabler of 5G, especially for low-latency applications.
• However, vertically integrated 5G systems are uneconomical and inferior to shared infrastructure models common in the cloud and datacenter sectors.
• There is a need for new actors (e.g., datacenter/ICT investors, REITs, MTDCs) to collaborate on shared infrastructure models for edge computing.
• Without such collaboration, MNOs may be disintermediated by private networks and private edge computing.

Key Information

• 5G's impact on energy costs is a major concern, with operators recognizing the need for energy-efficient solutions.
• Edge computing is expected to drive new business models and shared infrastructure.
• The business case for 5G remains uncertain, due to high energy costs and complex deployment challenges.
• 5G's potential is significant, especially in enterprise applications and new use cases such as URLLC and mMTC.
• Multi-access edge computing (MEC) is essential for enabling 5G's full potential, but requires more investment and collaboration.

Conclusion

The telecom industry is transitioning into a 5G era, but the road ahead is fraught with challenges, particularly in terms of energy costs and edge computing infrastructure. While 5G promises transformative capabilities, the business case is not yet solid, and new strategies and collaborations are needed to ensure long-term success. The focus is shifting towards shared infrastructure models, cloud-native technologies, and energy efficiency, which are critical for sustaining 5G growth and meeting enterprise demands.