2013年-世界发展银行全球_MENA_Economic_and_Development_Prospects_2013___Investing_in_Turbulent_Times_3页_1mb

MENA Economic and Development Prospects 2013: Investing in Turbulent Times

Core Content

This report from the World Bank provides an overview of the economic and development prospects for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2013 and 2014, highlighting the impact of political and social upheavals following the Arab Spring of 2011. It discusses the challenges and opportunities for economic growth, investment, and structural transformation in the region.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Growth in 2013

• The overall economic growth in the MENA region is expected to remain weak or decline relative to 2012.
• The average growth rate is projected at 2.8%, down from 5.6% in 2012.
• Growth is most volatile in developing oil-exporting countries, with significant slowdowns expected in Libya, Iran, and Syria due to unfavorable developments.
• Oil-importing countries in the region are expected to maintain weak growth, though slightly better than 2012.

Political and Social Instability

• Political instability and uncertainty have dominated the economic landscape since the Arab Spring.
• The instability has affected confidence in countries like Egypt, and has had a heavy toll on Syria with spillover effects on neighboring countries.
• The GCC oil exporters have continued to offset the decline in oil production in other parts of the region by maintaining high production levels and providing financial support.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

• FDI flows to the MENA region declined after the Arab Spring, despite the region's previous recovery from the global financial crisis.
• FDI in the region has been concentrated in resource-intensive and services sectors, while non-oil manufacturing remains underdeveloped.
• Developing oil-importing countries received only 30% of the region's FDI inflows, and much of this came from GCC economies.
• The decline in FDI is attributed to political instability, although the relationship is not straightforward. Some aspects of instability, such as government institutions and policies, had a negative effect, while democratic accountability did not.
• FDI flows to tradable sectors are particularly sensitive to political risk, showing a clear negative response to instability.

Impact of Political Instability

• Political turbulence since the early 2000s has shifted the composition of FDI in the region, favoring sectors that create fewer jobs or jobs in non-tradable sectors.
• It has discouraged high-quality FDI in non-resource tradable manufacturing and services, which are essential for export upgrading and diversification.
• Political instability has exacerbated the clustering of FDI in extractive industries and non-tradable sectors, a problem that has existed before the Arab Spring and is linked to policy distortions and political capture.

Policy Challenges and Priorities

• The report outlines several policy challenges for the MENA region, including the risk of falling into a resource trap.
• Strengthening institutions and improving the investment climate are critical for attracting investment and promoting growth.
• Political reforms are necessary for sustainable and high-growth development, but structural reforms are also essential to address long-standing issues such as:
  • Distortionary and unevenly enforced regulations
  • Favoring of privileged businesses
  • Macroeconomic imbalances and expensive subsidies
  • Inadequate and irregular provision of electricity and other infrastructure services
  • Poor education quality and skills
  • Inefficient markets for labor, goods, and finance

These structural issues constrain growth and contribute to structural unemployment, particularly among youth and women.

Conclusion

• The report emphasizes the need for political and macroeconomic stability to attract investment and foster growth.
• Investment in non-oil manufacturing and services is crucial for job creation, growth, and structural transformation.
• Addressing policy distortions and political capture is essential to break the cycle of underdevelopment and promote sustainable economic progress.

Figures and Data

• Figure 1 shows the post-Arab Spring regional growth record and outlook (annual % change).
• Figure 2 illustrates net FDI inflows to MENA and other developing countries (% of GDP).
• Figure 3 presents the Political Instability Index, 2000–2012.
• Figure 4 depicts the effect of political risk on FDI in MENA, 2003–12.

Contact Information

• Gerard A. Byam, Director, Strategy and Operations, MENA Region, The World Bank
• Preeti S. Ahuja, Manager, MNADE Regional Quick Notes Team: Omer Karasapan and Roby Fields
• Tel #: (202) 473 8177
• The MNA Quick Notes summarize lessons learned from MENA and other Bank Knowledge and Learning activities, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its board, or its member countries.