20260916-招银国际-Weak_crane_sales_in_Aug_due_to_sluggish_China_demand_6页_883kb

Capital Goods Sector Summary

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the Capital Goods sector, focusing on construction machinery in August 2026, with insights into sales trends, market expectations, and investment recommendations.

Key Sales Data (August 2026)

Main Points

• Crane Sales Decline in China: Crane sales in China were weak in August 2026, driven by sluggish domestic investment. However, export sales showed positive growth, with truck cranes up 25% and crawler cranes up 5% YoY.
• Excavator and Wheel Loader Growth: Excavator and wheel loader sales in China and exports both showed healthy growth, with excavator sales up 19% and wheel loader exports up 16%.
• Aerial Work Platform (AWP) Surprises: AWP sales in China rose 22% in August, with a significant 71% YoY increase in China sales, though exports were flat.
• Market Outlook for 4Q26: The overall machinery growth trend is expected to diverge in the fourth quarter of 2026. Overseas and mining-related machinery are anticipated to perform better, while domestic construction machinery will remain weak.
• Investment Recommendations:
  • SANY International (631 HK): Recommended as a BUY, due to its potential for overseas large mining trucks penetration.
  • Jiangsu Hengli (601100 CH): Recommended as a BUY, due to its North America construction demand and humanoid robots growth.
  • Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH), SANY Heavy (6031 HK / 600031 CH): Recommended as BUY, but with no short-term catalysts expected.
  • Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH): Recommended as HOLD.

Key Information

• Export Trends: While domestic demand in China for certain machinery (e.g., cranes, tower cranes) was weak, export volumes for truck cranes and wheel loaders showed strong growth.
• Downstream Applications: The downstream applications of construction machinery in China are outlined in a table, showing varying levels of usage across infrastructure, property, mining, and manufacturing sectors.
• CMBIGM Ratings:
  • BUY: Potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
  • HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months.
• Analyst Certification: The analyst certifies that the views expressed are personal and not influenced by compensation or conflicts of interest.

Figures and Data Sources

• Figure 1: Monthly excavator sales in China (Source: CCMA, CMBIGM)
• Figure 2: Monthly excavator export volume (Source: CCMA, CMBIGM)
• Figure 3: Electric wheel loader as a percentage of total wheel loader sales (Source: CCMA, CMBIGM)
• Figure 4–6: Utilisation hours of Komatsu excavators in North America, Indonesia, and Europe (Source: Komatsu, CMBIGM)
• Figure 7–8: CMBI excavator and wheel loader sales projections (Source: CCMA, CMBIGM estimates)
• Figure 9–10: Monthly wheel loader sales and export volume (Source: CCMA, CMBIGM)
• Figure 11–18: Sales and export data for truck cranes, crawler cranes, and tower cranes (Source: CCMA, CMBIGM)
• Figure 19–20: CMBI sales projections for truck cranes and tower cranes (Source: CCMA, CMBIGM estimates)
• Figure 21–22: AWP sales and export data (Source: CCMA, CMBIGM)
• Figure 23: Downstream applications of construction machinery in China (Source: CMBIGM)

Legal and Disclaimer Notes

• CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
• Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• Investors are advised to consult professional financial advisors for their own investment decisions.
• Conflicts of interest may exist, as CMBIGM may have investment banking relationships with the companies discussed.
• The report is intended for specific recipients and not for general distribution.

Conclusion

The Capital Goods sector in China is experiencing mixed performance, with export growth outperforming domestic demand in August 2026. The construction machinery segment is weak, but overseas and mining-related machinery are expected to drive growth in the fourth quarter. Investment recommendations highlight selectivity in the sector, with a focus on SANY International and Jiangsu Hengli due to their growth potential in key markets.