2019全球医疗趋势调查报告（英文版）-5mb

2019 Global Medical Trends Survey Report Summary

Core Content

The 2019 Global Medical Trends Survey Report by Willis Towers Watson provides an overview of medical cost trends across various regions and countries, highlighting the factors influencing these trends and the leading conditions causing the highest costs and claims. The report emphasizes the global and regional disparities in medical inflation and the challenges faced by the insurance industry in managing rising healthcare expenses.

Main Findings

• Global Medical Trend: The projected global medical trend for 2019 is 7.6%, which is 0.5% higher than the 2018 rate. This trend continues to outpace general inflation by more than a 2:1 ratio.

• Regional Variations:

  • Middle East and Africa (MEA): The region is expected to see the largest increase in medical trend, rising to 12.4% in 2019 from 9.9% in 2018.
  • Americas: The trend is expected to remain stable at 11.1%.
  • Asia Pacific: The trend is projected to be 7.8% for 2019, with some countries like China and Vietnam experiencing significantly higher rates.
  • Europe: The trend is the lowest globally at 5.0%, although certain countries like Hungary and Turkey show higher rates due to specific challenges.

• Leading Conditions:

  • Circulatory conditions are the top cause of claims globally, with 54% of respondents identifying them as such.
  • Musculoskeletal conditions are the second most common, with 49% of respondents identifying them.
  • Cancer is the third, with 42% of respondents citing it as a major cause.
  • Mental and behavioral disorders are also rising in prominence, with increasing concerns about their cost implications and underrepresentation in current insurance coverage.

• Key Cost Drivers:

  • Overuse of care is the most significant factor, with 70% of respondents citing it as a major cause.
  • Pharmacy costs are also a growing concern, with 66% of insurers in the Americas and 52% in Asia Pacific expecting moderate increases.
  • Innovative treatments and new technologies contribute significantly to rising costs, with 65% of insurers identifying this as a top cause.
  • Provider profit motives are also a factor, with 48% of insurers citing it as a main cause.

• Insurance Challenges:

  • Insurer loss ratios are a concern, particularly in Brazil, where the average is 83%.
  • Cost containment strategies are being implemented, including directional plans and pharmacy benefit management.
  • Mental health is increasingly seen as a costly issue, with 41% of European insurers identifying it as a moderate cost driver.

Key Information

• Survey Methodology: Conducted from July to September 2018, with responses from 307 leading insurers in 77 countries.
• Weighting: Global results are weighted using GDP per capita.
• Country-Specific Insights:
  • China: Medical trend is increasing due to lifestyle-related chronic conditions and rising demand for advanced treatments.
  • India: Chronic illnesses and access issues are driving costs, with insurers working on underwriting and pricing controls.
  • Malaysia: New medical technologies and unnecessary procedures are contributing to cost increases.
  • Philippines: HMO-dominated system and poor triaging are leading to higher costs.
  • Singapore: Aging population and limited medical facilities are driving costs.
  • Turkey: High inflation and currency depreciation are major factors.
  • U.K.: Initiatives like directional plans and tax changes are influencing cost trends.
  • U.A.E.: High costs and government-driven cost-containment efforts are key.
  • South Africa: VAT increase has led to cost hikes.
  • Brazil: High medical trend is driven by regulatory changes and overuse of services.

Conclusion

The report highlights that while global medical trends remain relatively stable, significant increases are expected in certain regions, particularly in the Middle East and Africa. The rise in costs is attributed to overuse of care, new medical technologies, and the growing impact of mental and behavioral disorders. Insurers are adapting through cost containment strategies, directional plans, and policy adjustments to manage these trends effectively.