GSMA-2017年欧洲移动经济报告（英文）-2017-40页_3mb

报告摘要

The Mobile Economy in Europe (2017)

Core Content Summary

The GSMA Intelligence report provides a comprehensive overview of the mobile economy in Europe, highlighting trends in subscriber growth, 4G and 5G adoption, revenue dynamics, and the evolving market structure. It also outlines the policy environment and the role of the mobile industry in driving economic growth and innovation.

Key Statistics and Trends

Subscriber Penetration:
By mid-2017, 84% of Europe’s population (457 million individuals) were mobile subscribers, with a 0.7% CAGR expected through 2020.
- SIM Connections: 671 million at the end of 2016 (excluding M2M), with an expected increase to 709 million by 2020.
- SIM Ratio: Stabilising at around 1.5 SIM connections per person by 2020.
4G Migration:
- 4G Coverage: Reached 95% of the population in early 2017.
- 4G Connections: 226 million at the end of 2016 (34% of total), expected to grow to 435 million by 2020 (61% of total).
- Adoption Lag: In some countries, 4G adoption lags behind smartphone adoption, with rates below 40% in Germany, Belgium, Italy, and Austria.
- 4G Evolution: Technological advancements such as MIMO, carrier aggregation, and 256 QAM are improving network performance.
- 4G to 5G Transition: 4G is expected to overtake 3G in 2017 and reach 61% of total connections by 2020.
5G Outlook:
- 5G Connections: Expected to reach 214 million by 2025, representing 31% of total connections.
- 5G Coverage: Projected to reach 73% of the population by 2025.
- Leading Countries: Germany (37 million, 33.6% adoption), the UK (34 million, 43.7% adoption), and France (32 million, 47.6% adoption).
- 5G Rollout: Likely to begin in 2020 across major European markets, with the Gigabit Society vision driving regulatory and investment efforts.
- 5G Investment: Expected to peak after 2020, with estimates suggesting €300–500 billion in total deployment costs across Europe.
Revenue Trends:
- Total Mobile Revenues: Stabilising after years of negative or flat growth, reaching €143 billion in 2016 and projected to reach €146 billion by 2020 at a 0.4% CAGR.
- Data Traffic Growth: Mobile data traffic is expected to grow at a 42% CAGR from 2016 to 2022, reaching 15.8 exabytes per month.
- Unlimited Data Plans: Increasing popularity, but concerns about sustainability and network performance remain.
- Monetisation Strategies: Operators are exploring zero-rated/bundled content and data packages as alternatives to unlimited data plans.
Economic Impact:
- Contribution to GDP: Mobile technologies and services contributed €540 billion in 2016 (3.4% of GDP), expected to rise to €670 billion (3.9% of GDP) by 2020.
- Employment: The mobile ecosystem supported 2.6 million jobs in 2016, including 11 million directly and 1.5 million indirectly.
- Public Funding: Mobile operators contributed €100 billion in 2016 to the public sector, mainly through taxation.
Market Structure and M&A:
- Consolidation: Significant M&A activity over the last five years, particularly in Germany, Italy, and Austria, has reduced the number of licensed mobile operators in many countries.
- Operator Count: From 2010 to 2016, around 20 mobile operators merged or closed, increasing the number of countries with three or fewer licensed mobile operators.
- Convergence: Fixed/mobile/cable convergence is reshaping the market, with operators focusing on product bundling (triple- or quad-play) to improve revenue mix and reduce churn risk.
Innovation and Technology:
- IoT Development: Europe is a key player in the IoT market, with the rollout of NB-IoT and LPWA networks.
- AI and Voice Interfaces: European operators are increasingly adopting AI and voice-based services, such as chatbots and digital assistants, to enhance customer engagement.
- IP Messaging: Usage varies across Europe, with 46% of consumers using IP messaging more than SMS on average, while 40% do not use it at all.
- Spain: Leads in IP messaging adoption, with 80% of users preferring it over SMS, while France has a lower uptake due to high contract SMS inclusion.
Policy and Regulation:
- Digital Single Market Strategy: A key initiative by the European Commission, aiming to boost €415 billion in annual growth.
- 5G Action Plan: Includes spectrum availability and infrastructure investment, with the goal of 5G coverage in all urban areas and major transport routes by 2025.
- ePrivacy Regulation: Part of the regulatory framework for a digital Europe, still under development.
- Spectrum Reform: Operators are calling for reform to support the Digital Single Market, with a focus on 3.5 GHz and mmWave spectrum availability.

Main Viewpoints

Saturation of Mobile Market: Europe is nearing full saturation, with future growth limited to specific markets like France and Spain.
4G Growth and 5G Potential: 4G continues to grow and evolve, with 5G expected to significantly transform the industry by 2025.
Revenue Stability: Mobile revenue is stabilising, driven by data growth, better economic conditions, and reduced regulatory pressure.
Innovation and Digital Transformation: The mobile industry is a driver of economic growth and job creation, with significant contributions to the Gigabit Society vision.
Policy Challenges: Regulatory frameworks need to evolve to support 5G and the broader digital transformation, including spectrum reform and the Digital Single Market strategy.

Key Information

Subscriber Growth: Limited to 12 million by 2020 at a 0.7% CAGR.
4G Dominance: Expected to reach 61% of total connections by 2020.
5G Growth: 214 million connections by 2025, with 73% population coverage.
Revenue Growth: From €143 billion in 2016 to €146 billion by 2020.
Data Traffic: Projected to grow to 15.8 exabytes per month by 2022.
Employment: 2.6 million jobs supported in 2016, including 11 million direct and 1.5 million indirect.
M&A Activity: 20 operators merged or closed between 2010 and 2016, reducing the number of licensed operators.
Policy Priorities: Spectrum reform, 5G infrastructure investment, and the Digital Single Market strategy are central to the industry’s future.