世界银行-评估社会保护的适应性_提高蒙古牧民应对气候冲击的能力（英）-2025_82页_15mb

Summary: Assessing the Adaptability of Social Protection and Enhancing Herder Resilience Against Climate Shocks in Mongolia

Core Content

This report evaluates the adaptability of Mongolia's social protection system in response to climate shocks, particularly dzud, and provides recommendations to enhance resilience among herders. It is based on a comprehensive analysis of institutional frameworks, programs, data systems, and financing mechanisms, drawing on both primary and secondary data collected through field visits, workshops, and consultations with government and non-government actors.

Main Findings

• Poverty and Vulnerability: Poverty remains widespread in both urban and rural areas, with herders being particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on livestock. Over 27.7% of herders are still poor, and they face significant risks from natural disasters like dzud and price fluctuations.
• Climate Shocks: Dzud, a severe climate-related disaster, is becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. It involves summer droughts followed by harsh winters with heavy snowfall and low temperatures, threatening livestock and the economic stability of herding families.
• Social Protection System: Mongolia has a well-established legal and institutional framework for social protection and disaster risk reduction (DRR). The system has demonstrated capacity for vertical expansion during crises, such as the pandemic, but lacks horizontal scalability to effectively reach all vulnerable groups.
• Data and Information: The Integrated Household Administrative Database (IHAD) is a promising tool for social protection, but its full potential requires improved interoperability and data updating mechanisms. The existing Household Information Database (HID) has limited coverage, which can hinder timely and effective responses to shocks.
• Financing: Disaster risk financing (DRF) in Mongolia is primarily ex post, relying on reallocation of existing budgets and the Government Reserve Fund. There is a need for more proactive DRF strategies and instruments to support adaptive social protection (ASP).

Key Recommendations

1. Policies and Institutional Arrangements

• Integrate ASP into the legal framework: Update laws and regulations to explicitly include ASP strategies for shock response.
• Incorporate ASP into DRR frameworks: Strengthen the role of ASP within disaster risk management (DRM) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies.

2. Programs and Delivery Systems

• Strengthen subnational initiatives: Support local-level shock-responsive social assistance through the allocation of local funds and enhanced outreach.
• Leverage existing programs: Avoid creating new cash transfer programs and instead use existing ones like the Child Money Program and Food Support Program for dzud response.
• Improve coordination: Enhance the role of subnational actors in delivering targeted support to vulnerable herder households.

3. Data and Information Management

• Enhance IHAD capabilities: Continue developing IHAD as a social registry and improve its interoperability with other databases.
• Implement nudging strategies: Introduce mechanisms to ensure timely updates of household information for better targeting of assistance.
• Improve data accessibility: Strengthen data systems to enable more accurate and efficient identification of vulnerable households.

4. Finance

• Develop a comprehensive DRF strategy: Create guidelines for financing ASP and explore new DRF instruments to support proactive disaster preparedness.
• Support the DRF Law process: Encourage the development and implementation of a dedicated DRF Law to improve funding mechanisms for climate shocks.

5. Resilience Enhancements for Herders

Preparedness (pre-dzud)

• Create livelihood exposure risk maps: Identify vulnerable areas and households to facilitate pre-disaster planning and resource allocation.
• Offer lump-sum payments: Allow herders to receive three months of transfers in lump sum payments in October and January to prepare for dzud.
• Conduct awareness workshops: Train herders on livestock management practices to improve their preparedness for climate shocks.
• Enhance data sharing: Enable the Mongolian Red Cross to access social welfare data to improve targeting and reduce duplication.

Response Actions (post-dzud)

• Adapt Livestock Restocking Program: Expand the program to provide post-dzud support to poor and vulnerable herders.
• Strengthen Local Livelihood Support Councils: Improve their role in expanding social assistance coverage and supporting recovery efforts.

Complementary Measures (non-social protection)

• Establish a dzud resilience window: Introduce a dedicated funding mechanism within the Local Development Fund to support herder preparedness and response.
• Improve index-based livestock insurance: Increase coverage and affordability of index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) to better protect herders.
• Promote commercialization of livestock systems: Shift focus from quantity to quality in livestock production and encourage sustainable practices.
• Align with policy reforms: Ensure consistency with ongoing agriculture and climate change reforms to support a holistic resilience strategy.

Key Information

• Dzud Impact: Dzud events have a severe impact on herder livelihoods, with livestock suffering from harsh winters and low temperatures.
• Government Response: The government has shown adaptability in responding to the pandemic through increased benefit amounts and universal cash transfers.
• Technological Advancements: Mongolia has digitized 80% of its social assistance programs, improving transparency and efficiency in delivery.
• Challenges: Existing programs are limited in their ability to provide horizontal expansion, and data systems require further development to support ASP.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of adaptive social protection in enhancing the resilience of Mongolian herders against climate shocks. While Mongolia has made progress in this area, further improvements in institutional arrangements, data systems, and financing are needed to ensure the social protection system can effectively respond to both economic and climate-induced shocks. Strengthening these elements will be critical in supporting the long-term sustainability and resilience of herding communities.