2025-06-11-花旗集团-莫蒂瓦移动基础设施公司（MOTV3）_Motiva_Infraestrutura_de_Mobilidade_SA（MOTV3.SA）_5月可比收费公路交通量同比增长8.4_10页_322kb

Motiva Infraestrutura de Mobilidade SA (MOTV3.SA) - Citi Research Summary

Date: June 10, 2025
Company: Motiva Infraestrutura de Mobilidade SA
Analyst Recommendation: Buy
Current Price: R$13.40
Target Price: R$16.40
Expected Share Price Return: 22.4%
Expected Dividend Yield: 1.9%
Expected Total Return: 24.3%
Market Capitalization: R$27.068B (US$4.856B)

Analyst Take

Motiva's May traffic data shows modestly positive results. Toll-road traffic improved +8.4% year-over-year on a comparable basis, outperforming Citi's estimates. Airport traffic grew +10.5% y-o-y, with strong double-digit gains in key concessions. Urban mobility traffic increased +2.5% y-o-y, compensating for weaker April stats but still lagging Citi's projections. Valuation uses a FCFE DCF model with a 16% cost of equity, leading to a target price and expected returns.

Toll Road Traffic (May)

• Total traffic decreased -10.1% y-o-y.
• Comparable basis (excluding ViaOeste and Sorocabana): +8.4% y-o-y.
• Specific concessions: ViaSul +80.7%, ViaCosteira +16.3%; MSVia -7.5%, ViaLagos -3.3%.
• April-May combined: Total traffic -12.2% y-o-y (vs. Citi estimate -10.2%).
• Comparable basis April-May combined: +5.4% y-o-y (vs. Citi +2.9%).

Urban Mobility Traffic (May)

• Total transported passengers: +2.5% y-o-y.
• Comparable basis (excluding Barcas): +4.3% y-o-y.
• Key performers: VLT Carioca +12.5% y-o-y; laggard: Metrô Bahia +2.4% y-o-y.
• April-May combined: Traffic -1.1% y-o-y (vs. Citi estimate +3.0%).
• Comparable basis April-May combined: +0.7% y-o-y (vs. Citi +4.9%).

Airport Traffic (May)

• Total transported passengers: +10.5% y-o-y.
• Key performers: Bloco Central +19.9% y-o-y, BH Airport +14.2% y-o-y; negative: Quito Airport -3.4%, Aeris -1.1% y-o-y.
• April-May combined: Traffic +9.6% y-o-y (vs. Citi estimate +5.1%).

Risks

• Adverse government policies.
• Management failing to meet targets or overpaying for assets.
• Rising input costs for construction.
• Adverse macroeconomic conditions, such as slow growth or high interest rates.

Upside Risks

• Positive net present value (NPV) acquisitions or portfolio adjustments.
• Improvements in macroeconomic conditions, such as higher growth or lower interest rates.