2025-05-22-Jefferies-瓦雷能源（WAAREEEN）_美国法案对可再生能源的影响比预期更糟_7页_99kb

🔴 Company: Waaree Energies, a manufacturer of solar PV modules.

Rating: UNDERPERFORM with a price target of ₹2,100 (-30% from current INR2,981.75).

Key Risks:

• The US bill accelerates the phase-out of investment/production tax credits for clean energy, tightening FEOC compliance.
• New projects must start construction within 60 days of enactment and be operational by Dec 31, 2028.
• Credits expire by 2028, impacting US solar installations (risk to 57% of Waaree's INR2,150B order book).
• FEOC restricts leveraging Chinese global market dominance in PV sector.

Opportunities:

• Full manufacturing tax credit 'til 2031 for polysilicon to module makers, benefiting Waaree's US plant.

Valuation:

• Market Cap: INR856.6B.
• PT based on 15x Ebitda (with 16% sustainable margins) and 11.2% WACC.
• Upside triggers: Stronger domestic or US solar installations.