2025中国能源转型报告_13页_13mb

China Energy Transition: Potential US Gas Power Plant Exports

Core Content

This report discusses the possibility of China exporting gas power plants to the US, which is considered an unexpected development by investors. It highlights the potential upside for Chinese power equipment manufacturers, particularly Dongfang Electric, Harbin Electric, and Yingliu, due to the anticipated demand for gas turbines in the US.

Key Findings

• Potential Export Timeline: The report suggests that China may begin exporting gas power turbines to the US as early as 2026.
• Stock Price Upside: The recent 6–14% increase in share prices for Dongfang, Harbin, and Yingliu does not fully reflect the potential benefits of this scenario.
• Estimated Earnings Upside:
  • Dongfang Electric: Rmb2.3–2.9bn (c.50–62% upside)
  • Harbin Electric: Rmb1.2–1.5bn (50–63% upside)
  • Yingliu: Rmb0.7–0.9bn (almost 80–100% upside)
• Valuation Discount: Chinese companies are currently trading at a significant valuation discount (9–15x FY26E PE) compared to their international peers (50–90x FY26E PE).
• Price Targets:
  • Dongfang Electric A/H: UBS estimates price targets of HK$37.80 and Rmb37.80, with upside of 57% and 32% respectively.
  • Harbin Electric: Price target of HK$25.50, with an upside of 61%.
  • Yingliu: Price target of Rmb55.00, with an upside of 25%.

Supporting Evidence

1. Dongfang Electric:
   • Recently completed sales of 5 units of G50 (50MW) gas turbines to non-US countries.
   • Management guidance suggests annual sales of 10–20 units.
2. US Electricity Shortage:
   • NVDA's conference on electricity shortages may indicate the need for near-term solutions.
3. Global Spare Capacity:
   • China is the only country with spare capacity for gas turbines, making it a unique supplier.

Market Size and Earnings Estimation

• The US has a 30–46GW power capacity gap.
• The report assumes 2.0–2.5GW of gas turbine exports from China.
• Earnings Upside is based on:
  • ASPs: Half of GE Vernova's price of US$2,800/kW.
  • Net Margin: Half of GEV's 60%.
• Dongfang Electric is expected to have the highest share price upside due to its relative valuation (14.5x / 13.6x FY26E PE) and readiness for export.

Key Risks

• Slower Demand Recovery: In thermal, hydro, and nuclear segments.
• Lower ASPs or Unfavorable Cost Structure: Affecting gross margin.
• Delays in O&M Services: Transition to higher-value services.
• Slow Nuclear Tech Development: Impacting long-term order visibility.
• Yingliu Specific Risks:
  • Weaker demand for gas turbines and new aircraft.
  • Lower product yield during upgrades.
  • Slower capacity expansion.
  • Refinancing due to high net gearing.

Valuation Methodology

• PE Multiple: Used as a benchmark against historical trading ranges and regional peers.
• SOTP Valuation: Cross-checked for Yingliu.
• Valuation Comps:
  • Dongfang Electric A/H: 18.2x / 14.5x / 11.4x FY25–27E P/E.
  • Harbin Electric: 11.9x / 9.4x / 7.8x FY25–27E P/E.
  • Yingliu: 73.2x / 43.7x / 31.0x FY25–27E P/E.
  • GE Vernova: 95.8x / 51.6x / 32.0x FY25–27E P/E.

Analysts

• Ken Liu – Analyst, UBS Securities Asia Limited
• Eason Tang – Associate Analyst, UBS Securities Asia Limited

Summary of Recommendations

Key Definitions

• Forecast Stock Return (FSR): Expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over the next 12 months.
• Market Return Assumption (MRA): One-year local market interest rate + 5% (proxy for equity risk premium).
• Buy Rating: FSR > 6% above MRA.
• Neutral Rating: FSR between -6% and 6% of MRA.
• Sell Rating: FSR < 6% below MRA.

Disclaimer

This document is prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited, an affiliate of UBS AG. It is not intended as investment advice and is for educational purposes only. The report is subject to the UBS Global Research Disclaimer, which outlines the limitations and risks of relying on the information provided.

Additional Notes

• The report includes historical stock price data and price targets for the listed companies.
• UBS Global Research and UBS Evidence Lab data may be accessed via UBS Neo.
• Conflicts of Interest: UBS may act as principal in debt securities or related derivatives.
• Legal and Regulatory Constraints: May affect the level and type of services provided to clients.
• ESG Considerations: No globally accepted framework for ESG classification is mentioned, and UBS does not represent any product or service as meeting ESG standards.

Conclusion

The report concludes that Dongfang Electric, Harbin Electric, and Yingliu are Buy-rated due to the potential for US gas turbine exports, despite current valuation discounts. The highest upside is anticipated for Dongfang Electric A/H due to its relative valuation and export readiness.