20260805-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_6页_495kb

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed market update and analysis from the Fixed Income Department of CMB International Global Markets Limited. It covers the performance of various fixed income instruments, macroeconomic updates, new issues, and market commentary, with a particular focus on the Macau gaming sector and other credit-related developments in Asia.

Market Update

Asia Investment Grade (IG) Space

• The Asia IG space remained largely unchanged.
• TW (Taiwan) lifers were 1-2bps tighter.
• There was better buying in 5-year papers such as DAESEC, while better selling occurred in 30-year papers such as TENCNT.
• In the High Yield (HY) space, RMs/AM showed increased long-end exposures.
• EU AT1s were well bid, with 7-10-year non-call AT1s rising by 0.5-0.6pt.
• VNKRLE 27-29 rose 1.3pts.
• GLPSP/GLPCHI rose 0.5-1.1pts.
• LASUDE 29 declined by 1.0pt.

Higher-Yielding Space

• Long/short positioning technicals were a key driver of performance.
• WESCHI 28-29 rose 3.0-3.2pts.
• VNKRLE 27-29 closed 1.2pts higher.
• EHICAR 26 declined 0.5pt, while EHICAR 27 rose 0.2pt.
• WLISRC 36 declined 0.4pt.
• GLPSP Perps rose 0.5-1.3pts.
• JP and European AT1s and insurance subs closed 0.2pt lower despite some PB buying.
• INTNED 6.5 Perp declined 0.6pt.
• SOFTBK had a range of 0.5pt lower to 0.2pt higher.
• LGFVs (Large Global Financials) remained stable, with RM demand for high-yielding names continuing.
• Non-LGFV CNH papers were upbeat due to continuous cross-border RM demand in tech names.

Macau Gaming Sector Analysis

GGR Performance

• July 2026 GGR softened by 8.4% YoY to MOP20.3bn, reflecting the impact of the FIFA World Cup.
• The World Cup diverted gambling budgets from casino gaming to sports betting, leading to lower visitation and plays.
• The 7-month cumulative GGR for 2026 rose 4.4% YoY to MOP147.2bn, which is 84.6% of the 2019 pre-COVID level.
• This growth is expected to align with the 2025 run-rate and is seen as achievable due to continued recovery in tourist arrivals and the new concession framework.
• However, growth is anticipated to be driven by mass market demand rather than a surge in VIP activity.

Bond Picks

• Top Picks:

  • MPEL 5 3/8 12/04/29 (USG5975LAE68): 97.4px, 6.2% YTM, 3.0 mod dur
  • MPEL 7 5/8 04/17/32 (USG5975LAK29): 102.4px, 7.1% YTM, 2.4 mod dur
  • MPEL 6 1/2 09/24/33 (USG5975LAL02): 97.1px, 7.0% YTM, 5.5 mod dur
  • SJMHOL 6 1⁄2 01/15/31 (XS3267117995): 94.8px, 7.9% YTM, 3.7 mod dur
  • STCITY 6 1/2 01/15/28 (USG85381AF13): 100.0px, 6.5% YTM, 0.1 mod dur
  • STCITY 5 01/15/29 (USG85381AG95): 95.8px, 6.9% YTM, 2.2 mod dur
  • WYNMAC 5 1/2 10/01/27 (USG98149AD29): 99.8px, 5.7% YTM, 1.1 mod dur
  • WYNMAC 5 1/8 12/15/29 (USG98149AE02): 97.2px, 6.1% YTM, 3.0 mod dur

• Neutral View:

  • MGMCHIs, SANLTDs, and SJMHOL 28 are viewed with caution due to valuation concerns.

Macro News Recap

• Stock Markets: S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all rose on Tuesday.
• Job Openings: US June 2026 JOLTS Job Openings were 7.359mn, below market expectations of 7.440mn.
• UST Yields: 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year yields were at 4.20%, 4.33%, 4.63%, and 5.18%, respectively.
• Macau GGR: July 2026 GGR was in line with expectations of continued pressure until the World Cup ended on 19 July 2026.
• Other Highlights:
  • Fitch upgraded CHALUM (Aluminum Corporation of China) to A- from BBB+.
  • HSBC reported USD10.1bn in 2Q26 pre-tax profit.
  • Wynn Macau reported a 14% YoY rise in adjusted property EBITDAR to USD576.4mn.
  • Shui On Land secured 95.44% bondholder consent for USD450mn SHUION 9.75 01/26/29.

Offshore Asia New Issues

Priced

• Yieldking Investment Limited / Sichuan Development International: 450mn USD, 3yr, 4.55% coupon, issued at 4.55%.

Pipeline

• HSBC:
  • USD, 6NC5, T+115, Issue Rating: A3/A-/A+
  • USD, 6NC5, SOFR Equiv, Issue Rating: A3/A-/A+
  • USD, 11NC10, T+135, Issue Rating: A3/A-/A+

News and Market Color

• Onshore Credit Bonds: 103 credit bonds issued with RMB108bn, representing a 30.8% YoY increase in Month-to-Date issuance.
• Indonesia Policy: New policy prioritizes RKAB approvals for miners with high royalty contributions.
• Saudi Aramco: 1H26 adjusted EBIT rose 20.5% YoY to SAR443.2bn.
• Marubeni: Plans to raise investment by JPY250bn (cUSD1.6bn) to reach JPY1.4tn (cUSD8.6bn).
• New World Development: Sold ~80% of price-listed units at 83 Wing Hong Street, Hong Kong.
• Petron: 1H26 revenue rose 57% YoY to PHP605.9bn (cUSD9.9bn).
• MIND ID: Repurchased USD19.918mn and USD49.73mn of IDASAL bonds.

Important Disclosures

• Investment Risks: There are inherent risks in trading any securities.
• No Individual Advice: The report does not provide tailored investment advice.
• Past Performance: Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• Conflicts of Interest: CMBIGM may have positions or act as a principal in the securities discussed.
• Distribution Restrictions: The report is intended for specific clients and may not be distributed to others without consent.

Disclaimer

• UK Recipients: The report is only for those falling within Article 19(5) or Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.
• US Recipients: CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the US. The report is for major US institutional investors only.
• Singapore Recipients: The report is distributed by CMBISG, an exempt financial adviser, and is subject to Singapore regulations.

Contact Information

• Fixed Income Department: CMB International Global Markets Limited
• Email: fis@cmbi.com.hk
• Phone: 852 3900 0801 / 852 3761 8919

Author Certification

• The author certifies that all views reflect personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation.
• The author confirms no trading or conflict of interest in the securities covered within 30 days before and 3 days after the report's release.