2025-05-20-Bernstein-美国电话电报公司（T）_美国电话电报公司（AT_T）的光纤主导套餐和客户流失管理推动后付费业务增长_19页_2mb

AT&T Analysis Summary

• Rating & Price Target: Outperform with a $30 price target (+$1 from prior $29, 7% upside).
• Postpaid Growth: AT&T achieved 324k wireless postpaid net adds, exceeding consensus estimates by 28%. Its premium pricing ($90 for 4 lines vs. competitors) coexists with strong market share capture (~15-20% of industry net adds).
• Churn Advantage: Industry-leading monthly churn rate of 0.83% vs. Verizon’s 0.95%, contributing ~262k net adds (assuming Verizon's higher churn).
• Fiber Strategy: Fiber bundles account for 15-30% of postpaid net adds. Fiber penetration reached 40.3% (up from 29.5% in 2020). Bundled offerings drive ~50-100k net adds; 20M incremental fiber passes planned by 2029.
• Financials: Forecasted revenue growth (125B by 2026), strong EPS (2.08 in 2025E), and moderate valuation (Adjusted P/E 12.6x, EV/Sales 2.9x). Current trading range $28.02 (from $28.03/17.11 52-week).
• Investment Implications: Upside driven by fiber-led bundle growth. Downside risks include intensified competition from T-Mobile/MVNOs, fiber broadband competition, or fiber not reducing churn.