2024-09-17-世邦魏理仕-2024年英国房地产市场年中展望报告（英文版）_57页_35mb

Economic Outlook

• Current: Inflation reached the Bank of England's 2% target, boosting consumer confidence and economic growth. Investment volumes hit a record low, but signs of a turning point emerged. Retail sales improved.
• Outlook: Interest cuts expected in August; focus on wage control and sustainable inflation. GDP growth forecast at 1%, with real income gains driving demand.

Investment

• Current: Returns improved across sectors (industrial, retail), but transaction activity remains below average. Office values fell, logistics and data centres show resilience.
• Outlook: Investment returns to strengthen; focus on strategic locations and asset quality. Refinancing competition increases. Liquidity expected in key sectors like logistics and data centres.

Sustainability

• Current: FCA mandates 10% biodiversity net gain for developments. Energy grid issues delay clean energy projects.
• Outlook: Labour’s energy efficiency standards and green initiatives (Great British Energy) to bolster sustainable infrastructure. UK Sustainable Disclosure Requirements (SDR) from December 2024.

Office

• Current: High-quality space demand strong; vacancy rates rise due to poor-quality stock flooding the market. Investment volumes weak.
• Outlook: New developments exceed averages; pre-let rates high in London. Interest cuts may boost demand; yields likely flat.

Industrial & Logistics

• Current: Vacancy rates low (5.75%), prime rents slow. Third-party logistics and manufacturers drive demand.
• Outlook: Vacancies to rise; focus on sustainability and power supply. Investment volumes similar to last year.

Retail

• Current: Consumer confidence improving; retail sales modestly up. Online sales steady; vacancy rates stable.
• Outlook: Sales volumes likely rise in H2; retail parks outperform. Base rate cuts may invigorate the market.

Residential

• Current: Sales market recovered; house prices +1.5% YoY. Rental growth slows due to affordability.
• Outlook: House prices forecast +1% YoY; sales volumes +10%. Interest rate cuts support affordability.

Affordable Housing

• Current: Transaction activity rebounds; portfolio rationalization active. Yields softened slightly.
• Outlook: Investment to rise in H2; stock rationalization likely. Rental cap remains a challenge.

Purpose-Built Student Accommodation

• Current: High demand; strong investment. Rent growth targets 5-10%.
• Outlook: Supply constrained; affordability issues may arise post-MDR repeal.

Hotels

• Current: Strong RevPAR; investment volume increased. Domestic leisure benefits regional markets.
• Outlook: Tourism to grow; technology role in customer experience expanding.

Leisure & Pubs

• Current: Pubs sales surge post-holiday; cinema attendance low.
• Outlook: Market weak but improving; liquidity expected.

Healthcare

• Current: Investment activity rises; higher bidder interest.
• Outlook: Focus on value-add assets and elderly care.

Senior Living

• Current: Sales resilient; new builds challenging due to costs.
• Outlook: Economic improvement may boost activity; rental options gaining traction.

Roadside & Automotive

• Current: PFS demand strong; car dealerships consolidate.
• Outlook: EV adoption drives asset demand; investment to normalize.

Self Storage

• Current: Strong investor preference; occupancy normalizes.
• Outlook: Demand linked to mortgage renewals; yields compress.

Data Centres

• Current: London vacancy at historic low; hyperscaler demand high.
• Outlook: Expansion outside London; AI fuelled capacity needs.

Life Sciences

• Current: Lab space tight; venture capital stabilizing.
• Outlook: New lab completions; investment markets rebound.