欧洲对外关系委员会-新冠大流行改变英国政治的三种方式（英文）-2020.8-28页_530kb

Summary of The Brexit Parenthesis: Three Ways the Pandemic Is Changing UK Politics

Core Content

The document explores how the coronavirus pandemic has begun to reshape British politics, particularly in the context of the Brexit referendum and its lasting cultural and political divisions. It highlights the potential for a shift away from the culture-wars politics that defined the post-Brexit era, as the pandemic has introduced new priorities and challenges that may override previous tribal identities.

Main Points

1. The End of Culture-Wars Politics

• The Brexit referendum created a divide between "Leavers" and "Remainers," often aligning with cultural and regional identities.
• The pandemic has shifted voter focus toward competence and pragmatic governance, challenging the cultural basis of these divisions.
• Both Leavers and Remainers are now more open to leftist domestic policies and international cooperation, which were traditionally Labour strongholds.

2. Reassessment of International Partners

• Voters are increasingly critical of the UK's post-Brexit trade partners like the US and China, with many now favoring Germany.
• The UK's poor performance in managing the pandemic has led to a reevaluation of its global standing, reducing the appeal of "Global Britain" and "Anglosphere" narratives.
• This shift may lead to a reconsideration of the UK's trade relationships and a more pragmatic approach to international cooperation.

3. Economic Realignment and Progressive Consensus

• The pandemic has exposed structural inequalities, leading to a broader public support for redistributive policies.
• Labour's Keir Starmer has successfully reconnected with former Labour voters, including a significant portion of the "Red Wall" defectors.
• A new progressive economic consensus is emerging, with strong support for higher government spending, increased wages for key workers, and measures like a "mansion tax" and higher income tax for the wealthy.

Key Findings from ECFR Polling

• Government Competence: 54% of voters believe their opinion of the UK government has worsened due to the pandemic, with 32% of Conservative supporters also expressing dissatisfaction.
• Scientific Advice: Only one-third of respondents believe the government is following scientific advice in good faith, with 50% thinking it is for political reasons.
• International Cooperation: 66% of voters believe the pandemic shows the need for more international cooperation, with 86% supporting scientific collaboration for a vaccine.
• Red Wall Defectors: Starmer has regained a significant number of Red Wall voters, including almost one in four who previously supported the Conservatives.
• Climate Change: Strong public support remains for tackling climate change, with 62% wanting stronger action, and 55% seeing it as urgent and comparable to the pandemic.

Political Implications

• The pandemic may serve as an inflection point, moving politics away from the culture-wars framework of Brexit and toward a more pragmatic and internationalist stance.
• The Conservative Party faces challenges in maintaining its appeal as its cultural and economic messaging diverges from public expectations.
• The Labour Party has shown signs of regaining ground, especially among former Labour voters and in areas like Scotland.
• The Red Wall remains a battleground, with potential for realignment as voters reassess their priorities.

Conclusion

The pandemic is likely to blunt the cultural divisions created by Brexit, as voters prioritize competence and international cooperation over identity politics. While the Conservatives may attempt to revive culture wars, the data suggests that a new political consensus is emerging, centered on economic fairness and international solidarity. This shift could redefine the political landscape in the UK for years to come.