20260227-招银国际-Results_beat_travel_demand_remains_resilient_6页_667kb

> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Trip.com (TCOM US) # Results beat; travel demand remains resilient Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (26 Feb) 4Q25 results: total revenue was RMB15.4bn, up $20.8\%$ YoY, $4\%$ better than Bloomberg consensus estimates driven by an all-round beat across segments especially in corporate travel, package tour, and Others. Non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB3.2bn, $2\%$ better than consensus, thanks to the beat in revenue. For 2025, total revenue/non-GAAP OP grew $17 / 11\%$ YoY. While TCOM is facing some sentiment-driven headwinds, we believe its competitive advantages relative to domestic peers — including robust supply chain capabilities, high service quality, comprehensive product offerings, and global coverage — remain intact and supportive of its long-term growth trajectory. Its international expansion is also on track to unlock further long-term development opportunities. Our DCF-based target price remains unchanged at US$83.0, translating into 20x 2026E PE (non-GAAP). Maintain BUY. ■ Domestic and outbound travel demand remains resilient. 1) For domestic business, management noted healthy booking volume growth QTD in 1Q26, with domestic hotel booking volume growth standing at low-teens YoY, and transportation ticketing volume growth inline with industry; 2) Outbound air ticket and hotel bookings on TCOM's platform both recorded teens level of growth; 3) For pure international business, Trip.com /Skyscanner&others accounted for $18/7\%$ of group-level revenue in 4Q25, and revenue growth of Trip.com stayed at over $60\%$ YoY in the quarter, and we are anticipating the over $60\%$ YoY revenue growth to sustain in 1Q26E, driven by robust volume growth. Overall, we expect total revenue growth of $15\%$ YoY, with total revenue to reach RMB15.9bn in 1Q26E, $1\%$ higher than Bloomberg consensus. Driving operating efficiency improvement for international business amid robust revenue growth trajectory. TCOM's non-GAAP OPM for 4Q25 was $20.7\%$ , 0.4ppts shy of consensus, which we attribute to the stronger-than-expected revenue growth of Trip.com which is still in loss making stage. Despite that Trip.com is still enjoying strong revenue growth, TCOM guided to drive operating efficiency improvement for the business, and operating loss margin for Trip.com should see an improvement trend in 2026, in our view. For 2026E, we are estimating non-GAAP OP of RMB20.2bn, up $12\%$ YoY, translating into non-GAAP OPM of $28.3\%$ (2025: $28.9\%$ ). Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec) FY24A FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E Revenue (RMB mn) 53,377 62,510 71,577 79,110 85,898 YoY growth (%) 19.8 17.1 14.5 10.5 8.6 Net profit (RMB mn) 17,067.0 33,294.0 17,452.2 20,928.9 23,304.7 Adjusted net profit (RMB mn) 18,041.0 31,839.0 20,029.0 23,579.1 26,010.5 YoY growth (%) 38.0 76.5 (37.1) 17.7 10.3 EPS (Adjusted) (RMB) 25.84 46.23 29.08 34.24 37.77 P/E (x) 13.7 7.0 13.4 11.2 10.0 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIG estimates # BUY (Maintain) Target Price US$83.00 Up/Downside 58.8% Current Price US$52.27 # China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA (852) 3916 1739 hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA (852) 3850 5226 franktao@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFA luwentao@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Mkt Cap (US$ mn) 35,998.6 Avg 3 mths t/o (US$ mn) 211.9 52w High/Low (US$) 78.96/52.21 Total Issued Shares (mn) 688.7 Source:FactSet Shareholding Structure Capital World Investors 7.9% Baidu 6.4% Source: HKEx Share Performance 12-mth Price Performance Absolute Relative 1-mth -16.3% -13.9% 3-mth -25.0% -24.8% 6-mth -19.9% -25.3% Source:FactSet Source:FactSet # Results comparison and changes in forecast Figure 1: TCOM: quarterly financial results (RMBbn) 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 4Q25E consensus Diff% Total revenue 11.9 12.8 15.9 12.8 13.9 14.9 18.4 15.4 14.9 3.7% YoY growth (%) 29.4% 13.5% 15.6% 23.5% 16.2% 16.2% 15.5% 20.8% Accommodation reservation 4.5 5.1 6.8 5.2 5.5 6.2 8.0 6.3 6.2 2.0% YoY growth (%) 29.2% 19.9% 21.7% 32.7% 23.2% 21.2% 18.3% 21.4% Transportation ticketing 5.0 4.9 5.7 4.8 5.4 5.4 6.3 5.4 5.4 0.1% YoY growth (%) 20.3% 1.2% 5.3% 16.4% 8.4% 10.8% 11.6% 12.3% Package tour 0.9 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.0 7.9% YoY growth (%) 128.8% 42.0% 17.3% 23.6% 7.2% 5.3% 3.1% 21.4% Corporate travel 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 10.0% YoY growth (%) 14.8% 8.4% 11.0% 10.7% 12.1% 9.3% 15.2% 15.1% Others 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.7 15.1% YoY growth (%) 38.6% 31.0% 40.9% 24.9% 33.0% 31.0% 33.9% 54.3% Gross profit 9.7 10.5 13.1 10.1 11.1 12.0 15.0 12.2 11.7 3.8% Operating profit 3.3 3.6 5.0 2.3 3.6 4.1 5.6 2.5 2.5 0.0% Non-GAAP operating profit 3.8 4.2 5.5 2.8 4.0 4.7 6.1 3.2 3.1 1.5% YoY growth (%) 43.8% 21.7% 23.7% 4.3% 7.4% 10.4% 12.2% 15.9% Non-GAAP net profit 4.1 5.0 6.0 3.0 4.2 5.0 19.2 3.5 3.2 7.7% YoY growth (%) 96.4% 45.2% 21.8% 13.6% 3.3% 0.5% 221.2% 14.7% Expense ratio and margins GPM (%) 81.1% 81.8% 82.2% 79.1% 80.3% 80.9% 81.6% 78.8% 78.8% 0.0 ppt -0.6 OPM (%) 27.8% 27.8% 31.5% 18.0% 25.7% 27.6% 30.3% 16.4% 17.0% ppt -0.4 Non-GAAP OPM (%) 31.6% 33.1% 34.4% 21.6% 29.2% 31.4% 33.4% 20.7% 21.2% ppt -0.2 Non-GAAP P&D expense ratio 24.3% 20.9% 21.5% 24.9% 23.9% 21.8% 20.9% 24.2% 24.3% ppt Non-GAAP S&M expense ratio 19.1% 21.8% 21.1% 26.2% 21.4% 22.1% 22.5% 28.1% 27.0% 1.1 ppt -0.3 Non-GAAP G&A expense ratio 6.1% 6.1% 5.3% 6.5% 5.9% 5.7% 4.9% 5.9% 6.2% ppt Adjusted NPM (%) 34.0% 39.0% 37.5% 23.8% 30.2% 33.7% 104.3% 22.6% 21.7% 0.8 ppt Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIGM We lift 2026E revenue forecast by $0.7\%$ , to account for more robust-than-expected international business revenue growth, as well as more solid-than-expected revenue growth in package tour and corporate travel business, while our non-GAAP OPM forecast is lowered to $28.3\%$ (from $28.9\%$ ) accordingly to reflect the increase in revenue contribution of international business which is still in loss making stage. Figure 2:TCOM:forecast revision RMB bn Current Previous Change (%) 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E Revenue 71.6 79.1 85.9 71.0 79.4 - 0.7% -0.4% - Gross Profit 57.4 63.4 68.9 56.9 63.4 - 0.8% 0.1% - Operating Profit 17.6 20.2 22.6 18.2 21.0 - -2.9% -3.6% - Non-GAAP OP 20.2 22.9 25.3 20.5 23.3 - -1.2% -2.0% - Non-GAAP NP 20.0 23.6 26.0 20.6 23.2 - -2.6% 1.4% - Gross Margin 80.1% 80.1% 80.2% 80.1% 79.8% - 0.1 ppt 0.4 ppt - Operating Margin 24.7% 25.6% 26.3% 25.6% 26.4% - -0.9 ppt -0.8 ppt - Non-GAAP OPM 28.3% 28.9% 29.4% 28.9% 29.4% - -0.6 ppt -0.5 ppt - Non-GAAP NPM 28.0% 29.8% 30.3% 28.9% 29.3% - -1.0 ppt 0.5 ppt - Source: CMBIGM estimates Figure 3: TCOM: DCF valuation (WACC of $10.5\%$ , terminal growth of $1.0\%$ (RMBbn) 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E 2034E 2035E 2036E Total revenue 71.6 79.1 85.9 91.8 96.6 100.7 104.1 106.9 109.2 111.2 112.9 NPV of FCF 189.1 Discounted terminal value 99.5 Total equity valuation 399.9 No. of ADS (diluted, mn) 689 Valuation per ADS (USD) 83.0 Source: CMBIGM estimates Note: 1) Our USD:RMB exchange rate assumption is adjusted to 1:7.0 from 1:7.2, in line with recent market trend; 2) we have prolonged our DCF projection to 2036E and our terminal growth assumption has been lowered to $1\%$ from $2\%$ previously; 3) our target valuation is based on 2026E valuation. Financial Summary INCOME STATEMENT 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Revenue 44,562 53,377 62,510 71,577 79,110 85,898 Cost of goods sold (8,121) (9,990) (12,122) (14,095) (15,578) (16,829) Others (52) (83) (101) (116) (128) (139) Gross profit 36,389 43,304 50,287 57,367 63,404 68,931 Operating expenses (25,065) (29,127) (34,514) (39,719) (43,188) (46,380) SG&A expense (12,945) (15,988) (19,378) (22,783) (24,785) (26,569) R&D expense (12,120) (13,139) (15,136) (16,936) (18,403) (19,810) Operating profit 11,324 14,177 15,773 17,648 20,216 22,551 Interest income 2,090 2,341 2,603 2,197 3,769 4,133 Interest expense (2,067) (1,735) (849) (773) (868) (868) Other income/expense (667) 2,220 21,321 2,858 3,159 3,430 Pre-tax profit 10,680 17,003 38,848 21,930 26,276 29,246 Income tax (1,750) (2,604) (5,815) (4,386) (5,255) (5,849) Others 1,072 2,828 353 0 0 0 Minority interest (84) (160) (92) (92) (92) (92) Net profit 9,918 17,067 33,294 17,452 20,929 23,305 Adjusted net profit 13,071 18,041 31,839 20,029 23,579 26,011 BALANCE SHEET 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Current assets 88,732 112,120 121,050 188,356 221,232 255,277 Cash & equivalents 41,592 48,439 42,075 113,760 142,155 172,161 Restricted cash 2,391 2,654 4,376 5,010 5,538 6,013 Account receivables 11,410 12,459 15,241 14,315 15,822 17,180 Prepayment 12,749 17,290 27,351 23,262 25,711 27,917 Other current assets 20,590 31,278 32,007 32,007 32,007 32,007 Non-current assets 130,405 130,461 146,337 133,866 133,802 133,522 PP&E 5,142 5,053 5,445 5,553 5,639 5,510 Investment in JVs & assoc 49,342 47,194 61,375 50,694 50,694 50,694 Intangibles 12,564 12,840 13,013 10,965 10,765 10,565 Goodwill 59,372 60,911 62,268 62,268 62,268 62,268 Other non-current assets 3,985 4,463 4,236 4,386 4,436 4,486 Total assets 219,137 242,581 267,387 322,222 355,034 388,799 Current liabilities 72,411 74,010 78,169 97,119 105,823 113,156 Short-term borrowings 25,857 19,433 19,335 19,335 19,335 19,335 Account payables 16,459 16,578 19,150 22,266 24,610 26,586 Tax payable 2,038 2,117 0 6,579 7,883 8,774 Other current liabilities 27,013 33,430 38,957 48,234 53,217 57,620 Accrued expenses 1,044 2,452 727 705 779 841 Non-current liabilities 23,720 25,089 16,618 26,309 26,673 26,930 Long-term borrowings 19,099 20,134 11,430 20,134 20,134 20,134 Obligations under finance leases 477 561 585 585 585 585 Other non-current liabilities 4,144 4,394 4,603 5,590 5,954 6,211 Total liabilities 96,131 99,099 94,787 123,429 132,496 140,086 Share capital 6 6 6 6 6 6 Capital surplus 97,428 101,187 103,657 106,434 109,284 112,190 Retained earnings 28,806 45,251 71,792 95,928 116,822 140,092 Other reserves (4,056) (3,894) (4,506) (4,506) (4,506) (4,506) Total shareholders equity 122,184 142,550 170,949 197,861 221,606 247,781 Minority interest 822 932 1,651 932 932 932 Total equity and liabilities 219,137 242,581 267,387 322,222 355,034 388,799 CASH FLOW 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Operating Profit before taxation 11,752 19,831 39,201 21,930 26,276 29,246 Depreciation & amortization 817 851 893 939 988 1,020 Change in working capital 9,256 3,321 (8,586) 23,965 4,749 3,769 Others 179 (4,378) (6,465) (4,729) (5,525) (6,063) Net cash from operations 22,004 19,625 25,043 42,104 26,488 27,971 Investing Capital expenditure (606) (591) (692) (793) (876) (693) Acquisition of subsidiaries/ investments (5,326) (16,036) 0 0 0 0 Others 11,851 10,575 4 4 4 5 Net cash from investing 5,919 (6,052) (689) (788) (871) (689) Financing Net borrowings 5,721 (3,231) (98) 0 0 0 Proceeds from share issues 0 0 0 0 0 0 Others (8,268) (3,479) (28,899) 31,004 3,305 3,198 Net cash from financing (2,547) (6,710) (28,997) 31,004 3,305 3,198 Net change in cash Cash at the beginning of the year 18,487 43,983 51,093 46,451 118,771 147,692 Exchange difference 120 247 0 0 0 0 Others 25,376 6,863 (4,642) 72,320 28,921 30,481 Cash at the end of the year 43,983 51,093 46,451 118,771 147,692 178,173 GROWTH 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec Revenue 122.2% 19.8% 17.1% 14.5% 10.5% 8.6% Gross profit 134.4% 19.0% 16.1% 14.1% 10.5% 8.7% Operating profit 12,768.2% 25.2% 11.3% 11.9% 14.6% 11.6% Net profit 606.9% 72.1% 95.1% (47.6%) 19.9% 11.4% Adj. net profit 910.1% 38.0% 76.5% (37.1%) 17.7% 10.3% PROFITABILITY 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec Gross profit margin 81.7% 81.1% 80.4% 80.1% 80.1% 80.2% Operating margin 25.4% 26.6% 25.2% 24.7% 25.6% 26.3% Adj. net profit margin 29.3% 33.8% 50.9% 28.0% 29.8% 30.3% Return on equity (ROE) 8.5% 12.9% 21.2% 9.5% 10.0% 9.9% GEARING/LIQUIDITY/ACTIVITIES 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec Current ratio (x) 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.3 VALUATION 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec P/E 23.5 13.7 7.0 13.4 11.2 10.0 P/B 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 P/CFPS 11.5 12.9 10.1 6.0 9.6 9.0 Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates. Note: The calculation of net cash includes financial assets. # Disclosures & Disclaimers # Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report. Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) will deal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. # CMBIGM Ratings BUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months HOLD : Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months SELL : Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months NOT RATED : Stock is not rated by CMBIGM OUTPERFORM : Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months MARKET-PERFORM : Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months UNDERPERFORM : Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months # CMB International Global Markets Limited Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800 CMB International Global Markets Limited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank) # Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable for the purposes of all investors. CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial position or special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in the report. The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on the performance of underlying assets or other variable market factors. CMBIGM recommends that investors should independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to consult with a professional financial advisor in order to make their own investment decisions. This report or any information contained herein, have been prepared by the CMBIGM, solely for the purpose of supplying information to the clients of CMBIGM or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed. This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or any interest in securities or enter into any transaction. Neither CMBIGM nor any of its affiliates, shareholders, agents, consultants, directors, officers or employees shall be liable for any loss, damage or expense whatsoever, whether direct or consequential, incurred in relying on the information contained in this report. Anyone making use of the information contained in this report does so entirely at their own risk. The information and contents contained in this report are based on the analyses and interpretations of information believed to be publicly available and reliable. CMBIGM has exerted every effort in its capacity to ensure, but not to guarantee, their accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness. CMBIGM provides the information, advices and forecasts on an "AS IS" basis. The information and contents are subject to change without notice. CMBIGM may issue other publications having information and/ or conclusions different from this report. These publications reflect different assumptions, point-of-view and analytical methods when compiling. CMBIGM may make investment decisions or take proprietary positions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views in this report. CMBIGM may have a position, make markets or act as principal or engage in transactions in securities of companies referred to in this report for itself and/or on behalf of its clients from time to time. Investors should assume that CMBIGM does or seeks to have investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. As a result, recipients should be aware that CMBIGM may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report and CMBIGM will not assume any responsibility in respect thereof. This report is for the use of intended recipients only and this publication, may not be reproduced, reprinted, sold, redistributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose without prior written consent of CMBIGM. Additional information on recommended securities is available upon request. # For recipients of this document in the United Kingdom This report has been provided only to persons (I)falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended from time to time)(The Order") or (II) are persons falling within Article 49(2) (a) to (d) ("High Net Worth Companies, Unincorporated Associations, etc.,) of the Order, and may not be provided to any other person without the prior written consent of CMBIGM. # For recipients of this document in the United States CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States. As a result, CMBIGM is not subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report is not registered or qualified as a research analyst with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA"). The analyst is not subject to applicable restrictions under FINRA Rules intended to ensure that the analyst is not affected by potential conflicts of interest that could bear upon the reliability of the research report. This report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to "major US institutional investors", as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the US, Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and may not be furnished to any other person in the United States. Each major US institutional investor that receives a copy of this report by its acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide this report to any other person. Any U.S. recipient of this report wishing to effect any transaction to buy or sell securities based on the information provided in this report should do so only through a U.S.-registered broker-dealer. # For recipients of this document in Singapore This report is distributed in Singapore by CMBI (Singapore) Pte. Limited (CMBISG) (Company Regn. No. 201731928D), an Exempt Financial Adviser as defined in the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) of Singapore and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. CMBISG may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, as defined in the Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289) of Singapore, CMBISG accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact CMBISG at +65 6350 4400 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.