2025-06-16-花旗集团-日本住宿基金（3226）_日本住宿基金（3226.T）_模型更新_12页_444kb

Nippon Accommodations Fund (3226.T) - Citi Research Summary

Citi Rating and Target Price Update

• Current Rating: Neutral.
• Revised Target Price: ¥119,000, down from ¥130,200.
• Reason for Revision: Reflects changes in the operating environment and adjustment of the risk-free rate to 1.05%. The target price is based on 24.4x aggregate normalized DPU forecasts for fiscal years FP8/25 and FP2/26, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.10%.

Key Financial and Forecast Highlights

• Expected Performance:

  • Share price return: -0.1%.
  • Dividend yield: 3.8%, with a total expected return of 3.8%.
  • Market Cap: ¥299,818M (US$2,081M).
  • Normalized DPU and profitability metrics indicate steady but revised downward expectations.

• Investment Outlook:

  • Supply-demand for rental housing is improving, with high occupancy supporting strong rent growth in central Tokyo-focused assets.
  • However, the valuation shows little appeal as units appear to have incorporated these positive prospects.

Risks

• Factors that could impact the target price include:
  • Real estate investment market developments (e.g., liquidity premiums and asset premiums/discounts).
  • Trends in real estate leasing (e.g., rent growth sustainability).
  • Interest rate and credit market conditions.
  • Current assessment: Flattish real estate market, stable liquidity premiums, modest uptrend in leases, and stable debt-raising for Nippon Accommodations Fund.

Key Data Points

• Valuation: P/E ratio around 25.x, dividend yield approximately 4.x%.
• Growth Rates: EPS projected to increase modestly, with declines in certain operating metrics likely due to market variability.
• Ratios: EBIT margin, operating ROE, and ROA remain stable, but interest coverage ratios have decreased slightly.