IMF-2023全球债务监测（2023年9月版）-9页_1mb

Global Debt Monitor Summary (September 2023)

Overview

In 2022, global debt decreased by 10 percentage points of GDP to reach 238 percent of GDP. This decline stemmed from the economic rebound after pandemic-related contractions and higher-than-expected inflation, but it only offset about two-thirds of the massive debt surge during the pandemic. Overall, global debt remains above pre-pandemic levels.

Breakdown of Debt

• Public Debt: Public debt dropped 3.6 percentage points to 92 percent of GDP, offsetting half of the pandemic surge, though it remained 7.5 points higher than 2019 levels.
• Private Debt: Private debt was the primary driver of reduction, falling 6.4 percentage points to 146 percent of GDP, nearly returning to 2019 levels in many countries.
• Contribution to Reduction: The combined decline in public and private debt over two years was 20 percentage points of GDP, only partially reversing pandemic increases.

Country-Specific Trends

• Advanced Economies: Debt fell significantly (12.2 points to 278 percent of GDP) due to faster private debt reduction, but public debt remained high.
• Emerging Markets (excluding China): Debt decreased 7.6 percentage points to 124 percent of GDP, with private debt leading the decline.
• China: Debt increased sharply by 7.3 percentage points of GDP to 272 percent, driven by public and private sectors, making it a major contributor to global debt growth.
• Low-Income Developing Countries: Debt did not decrease, rising with challenges like currency depreciation and financing needs, worsening debt burdens and market access issues.

Historical Context

Global debt has been on an upward trend since the post-World War II era. Public debt tripled from 30 percent to over 90 percent of GDP by 2022, while private debt tripled since 1960. China has been a key force, with its debt ratio increasing fourfold since the 1980s, far exceeding other economies and driving significant portion of global debt increases since 2008.

Future Outlook and Recommendations

Debt levels are unlikely to return to a downward trend medium-term, as factors like economic growth fading and inflation stabilizing may not sustain relief. Governments should focus on monitoring household and corporate debt risks, building credible fiscal frameworks, improving tax capacity in developing countries, and promoting structural reforms and international cooperation to manage vulnerabilities.

Conclusion

Global debt reduction is only partially reversing pandemic-related increases, and long-term risks remain, necessitating proactive debt management strategies.