2016太阳能光热发电全球展望（英文版）_114页-8mb

报告摘要

Summary of "SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY: GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2016"

Core Content

Solar Thermal Electricity (STE) is a renewable energy technology that uses mirrors to concentrate sunlight and generate heat or electricity. It is a proven, environmentally safe, and dispatchable energy source, capable of providing reliable power even when the sun is not shining. STE can be used in remote areas with high solar irradiation and its energy can be transported to densely populated regions with power shortages.

Main Advantages of STE

Inexhaustible Energy Source: STE relies on sunlight, which is abundant and renewable.
Proven Technology: It has been successfully deployed in several regions.
Environmental Safety: It produces no carbon emissions during operation.
Dispatchability: STE can be integrated with thermal storage to provide continuous power, making it suitable for balancing intermittent renewables like wind and solar PV.
Versatile Applications: It can be used for electricity generation, industrial process heat, desalination, and water purification.

STE Technologies and Costs

Types of Generators:
- Parabolic Trough
- Central Receiver
- Linear Fresnel Reflector
Cost Trends: STE costs have declined significantly over the years and are expected to continue decreasing with increased deployment.
Heat Storage Technologies: These allow for energy storage and dispatchability, crucial for grid integration.
Hybridisation: STE can be combined with other energy sources, enhancing efficiency and reliability.

Market Projections

Installed Capacity:
- In 2006: 0.5 GW
- In 2015: ~5 GW
- By 2030: Up to 2.7 million jobs and 131 GW of annual installations
- By 2050: Up to 12% of global electricity demand (800 GW capacity)
Investment:
- Under the Moderate scenario: ~162 billion euros in 2050
- Under the Advanced scenario: ~209.76 billion euros in 2050
CO₂ Savings:
- Reference (Current Policy): 2,197 million tonnes by 2050
- Moderate Scenario: 16,657 million tonnes by 2050
- Advanced Scenario: 37,465 million tonnes by 2050

Policy Recommendations

Financial Incentives: Guaranteed sale prices, feed-in-tariffs, and renewable portfolio standards.
Carbon Pricing: Implementing carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems.
Infrastructure Development: Establishing electricity transfer facilities and market mechanisms between regions.
R&D Support: Long-term, stable funding for research and development to drive innovation and cost reduction.

Regional Market Situation

The STE market has grown significantly, with most projects located in South Africa, India, the Middle East, and Morocco.
Despite political challenges and competition from photovoltaic technologies, STE remains a key player in the transition to renewable energy.

Outlook Scenarios

Moderate Scenario: STE could meet up to 5% of global electricity demand by 2050.
Advanced Scenario: STE could meet up to 12% of global electricity demand by 2050, with a market volume of 30 GW per year.
These scenarios align with the "Energy (R)evolution" vision of Greenpeace, which aims to achieve a 100% renewable energy mix by 2050.

Conclusion

STE has the potential to become a major player in the global energy mix, contributing significantly to CO₂ reduction and job creation.
With the right policies and investment, STE can provide a reliable, dispatchable, and cost-effective energy source that supports the transition to a low-carbon future.
The Paris Agreement has intensified the need for ambitious renewable energy targets, and STE is a key technology to help achieve them.

Key Statistics

By 2030, STE could employ up to 2.7 million people globally.
By 2050, STE could provide 12% of the world's electricity.
Under the Advanced scenario, annual CO₂ savings could reach 2,772 million tonnes by 2050.
STE is particularly suitable for sunny regions like Southern Europe, Northern Africa, the Middle East, South Africa, parts of India, China, and the Southern USA.