世界发展银行-Adapting-Jobs-Policies-and-Programs-in-the-Face-of-Accelerated-Technological-Change_16页_1mb

ADAPTING JOBS POLICIES AND PROGRAMS IN THE FACE OF ACCELERATED TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE

Core Content

This document outlines the challenges and opportunities brought about by rapid technological change in labor markets, emphasizing the need for proactive adaptation of policies and development programs to ensure inclusive and sustainable employment. It highlights the role of the World Bank Group (WBG) in addressing these issues through investments in human capital, digital infrastructure, and social protection, as well as analytical work to inform policy decisions.

Main Viewpoints

• Technological Disruption: Automation and AI are transforming labor markets, threatening low-skill, routine jobs while creating new opportunities for cognitive and socio-behavioral skills.
• Risks of Informality: A large portion of the workforce in developing countries operates informally, often lacking social protection and access to digital tools.
• Need for Digital Access: Developing countries lag in digital infrastructure, which is essential for economic growth, job creation, and service delivery.
• Importance of Human Capital: Investments in education, health, and skills development are crucial to prepare workers for future labor demands.
• Lifelong Learning: The changing nature of work requires continuous learning and adaptability, which must be supported through flexible and effective education systems.
• Social Protection and Flexibility: Policies must evolve to protect workers in a more digital and gig-based economy, ensuring access to social insurance and reducing labor costs for firms.

Key Information

Technological Change and Labor Markets

• Automation Impact: The number of industrial robots is expected to double by 2020, significantly affecting employment in routine tasks.
• Skill Demand Shift: There is a growing demand for cognitive and socio-emotional skills, while job-specific skills are becoming less valuable.
• Gig Economy: Although the gig economy is expanding, it remains a small part of the labor force (0.3–0.5%), primarily in countries like India, Bangladesh, and the U.S.

Human Capital Investment

• WB Portfolio: The World Bank has launched several projects to improve human capital, including the Human Capital Project (HCP) and a range of skills development initiatives.
• Human Capital Index (HCI): The HCI measures the productivity potential of future workers based on health and education outcomes. It reveals that 60% of children may be only half as productive without complete education and full health.
• Skills Development: The WBG supports projects like the Niger Skills Development for Growth Project, which provides training and start-up funds for youth in agribusiness and entrepreneurship.

Digital Infrastructure and Access

• Digital Development Practice: The WBG is investing in digital infrastructure, with over 179 projects in the ICT sector totaling $20 billion.
• Case Examples:
  • Smart Villages: Supports digitizing payments in rural areas.
  • Uganda Digital Acceleration Program: Aims to improve internet access and digital government services.
  • DE4A Moonshot: Seeks to connect every individual, business, and government in Africa by 2030 through improved digital infrastructure and services.

Social Protection and Labor Policies

• Informal Workers: Over two-thirds of the labor force in emerging economies is informal, often without access to social protection.
• Need for Reform: Current social protection models and labor regulations are inadequate for the digital economy, necessitating new approaches to support all workers.

What Works

1. Invest in Early Childhood Development

• Early investments in nutrition, health, and education are foundational for acquiring cognitive and socio-behavioral skills.
• Successful examples include:
  • Sierra Leone: A $1 investment in early childhood programs yields $6–$17 in returns.
  • Jamaica: Early stimulation increases future earnings by 25%.
  • Guatemala: Improved nutrition leads to higher adult wages.
  • Niger: Cash transfers enhance socioemotional skills.
  • Chile: Integrated programs (e.g., Crece Contigo) combine health, education, and welfare.

2. Establish Lifelong Tertiary Education

• Tertiary education systems should offer flexible, transferable skills to meet evolving labor demands.
• Examples include:
  • Hong Kong: Added general education to undergraduate programs, focusing on problem-solving and critical thinking.
  • Rwanda: University of Rwanda's College of Science and Technology uses progressive curricula and student support to enhance learning outcomes.

3. Support On-the-Job Learning for Informal Workers

• Informal workers need access to training and apprenticeship systems to improve employability.
• Projects in Senegal and South Africa focus on upgrading informal workshops, improving pedagogical skills, and providing financial assistance for youth entrepreneurship.

4. Improve Adult Learning Programs

• Adult learning must be tailored to individual needs, using better data, neuroscience insights, and flexible delivery models.
• India’s National Rural Employment Guarantee Act provides valuable administrative data for program design.
• Togo: Teaching socio-emotional skills like "personal initiative" led to a 30% increase in firm profits.

Conclusion

The WBG is actively working to adapt labor policies and programs to the changing technological landscape, emphasizing the importance of lifelong learning, digital access, and inclusive social protection. These efforts aim to equip workers with the skills needed for the future and ensure that technological progress benefits all segments of the population, especially the most vulnerable.