太空威胁评估2022（英）-国际战略研究中心-2022.4-53页_6mb

Space Threat Assessment 2022 Summary

Core Content Overview

The Space Threat Assessment 2022 is a comprehensive report by the Aerospace Security Project (ASP) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). It evaluates the growing threat to space systems from various countries and outlines the types of counterspace weapons being developed and used. The report emphasizes the increasing militarization and strategic importance of space, highlighting the need for responsible use and international cooperation to prevent conflict and ensure the sustainability of space operations.

Main Countries and Their Counterspace Activities

China

• Overview: China has rapidly developed into one of the most capable space nations, with a strong focus on both civil and military space capabilities.
• Spaceports and Launch Vehicles: China operates four spaceports and uses a range of Long March launch vehicles. In 2021, it conducted 52 successful launches and three failures.
• Satellite Constellation: The Beidou system, a 35-satellite PNT (Positioning, Navigation, and Timing) network, serves as an alternative to GPS and is a key tool in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
• Counterspace Capabilities:
  • Conducted a 2007 direct-ascent ASAT test and continued to demonstrate non-intercept capabilities.
  • Showcased co-orbital ASAT technologies, including rendezvous and proximity operations (RPOs) in GEO and potentially in LEO.
  • Demonstrated hypersonic missile capabilities, which could be used for counterspace operations.
  • Invested in space situational awareness, in-space logistics, and missile warning systems.
• Military Organization: The Strategic Support Force (SSF), established in 2015, oversees space and counterspace capabilities, alongside cyber and electronic warfare.

Russia

• Overview: Russia has re-emerged as a significant player in counterspace operations, particularly through its ASAT tests and integration of space capabilities into military operations.
• ASAT Test: Conducted a direct-ascent ASAT test in 2021, creating a debris field and demonstrating operational intent.
• GPS Jamming: Used GPS jamming in Ukraine during its invasion, showing how counterspace is being applied in real-world scenarios.
• Military Integration: Russia is integrating space systems into combined operations, reflecting a shift in its military doctrine.

India

• Overview: India has developed counterspace capabilities, including direct-ascent ASAT weapons.
• Launch and Satellite Capabilities: India has successfully tested direct-ascent ASAT weapons, indicating its growing interest in space security.

Iran

• Overview: Iran is developing counterspace capabilities, though details remain limited.
• Potential Threats: Likely possesses some form of anti-satellite technology, though it has not publicly demonstrated it.

North Korea

• Overview: North Korea is also developing counterspace capabilities, with limited public information.
• Potential Threats: May be working on ASAT technologies, though no confirmed tests have been conducted.

Others

• Australia, Israel, Japan, South Korea: These countries are also investing in space and counterspace capabilities, though their activities are less prominent compared to China and Russia.

Types of Counterspace Weapons

The report categorizes counterspace weapons into four broad groups:

1. Kinetic Physical

   • Description: Directly strike or detonate near satellites or ground stations.
   • Forms: Direct-ascent ASAT, co-orbital ASAT, and ground station attacks.
   • Effects: Irreversible damage, creates orbital debris, can affect other satellites.
   • Attribution: Generally possible, especially for direct-ascent and co-orbital attacks.

2. Non-Kinetic Physical

   • Description: Causes physical damage without direct contact.
   • Forms: Lasers, high-powered microwave (HPM) weapons, and nuclear detonations.
   • Effects: Can permanently disable satellites, cause overheating or blindness, or create high radiation environments.
   • Attribution: Limited for lasers and HPMs, but possible for nuclear detonations.

3. Electronic

   • Description: Targets the electromagnetic spectrum used by space systems.
   • Forms: Uplink and downlink jamming, spoofing.
   • Effects: Disrupts communications, corrupts data, or injects false information.
   • Attribution: Modest or limited, depending on the method used.

4. Cyber

   • Description: Attacks the data and systems that control space assets.
   • Forms: Data interception, corruption, and seizure of control.
   • Effects: Can permanently damage satellites or disrupt critical services.
   • Attribution: Difficult due to the ability to conceal identity and use hijacked systems.

Key Trends and Concerns

• Proliferation of Space Assets: The increasing number of satellites and launch vehicles in orbit has created a more congested and contested space environment.
• Integration of Counterspace into Military Operations: Countries like Russia are integrating counterspace capabilities into combined operations, as seen in its use of GPS jamming in Ukraine.
• Need for Norms and Cooperation: The lack of widely accepted norms for responsible behavior in space increases the risk of escalation and misperception.
• Private Sector Involvement: The report highlights the potential for private actors to develop and deploy counterspace capabilities due to the availability of commercial technology.

Curated Analysis of 2021 Counterspace Events

• Hypersonic Glide Vehicle Test: China's test of a hypersonic glide vehicle raised concerns about its potential use in counterspace operations.
• China's SJ-21 Satellite in GEO: Demonstrated China's ability to operate in geostationary orbit and conduct surveillance.
• Russia's 2021 ASAT Test: Created a debris field and showed the capability to target satellites.
• Russian GPS Jamming in Ukraine: Highlighted the real-world application of electronic warfare in space.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The report concludes that space is no longer a peaceful domain but a contested and congested one. The U.S. and its allies must respond with coordinated efforts to protect space assets, develop norms for responsible behavior, and ensure the sustainability of space operations. The private sector's role in the proliferation of counterspace capabilities cannot be ignored, and collaboration between governments and industry is essential.

Key Issues to Watch in 2022

• Development of New Counterspace Technologies
• Increased Use of Electronic and Cyber Attacks
• Integration of Space Capabilities into Military Operations
• Emergence of New Space Powers
• Establishment of International Norms for Space Security

About the Authors

• Todd Harrison – Senior Fellow, Aerospace Security Project
• Kaitlyn Johnson – Research Associate, Aerospace Security Project
• Makena Young – Research Associate, Aerospace Security Project
• Nicholas Wood – Research Associate, Aerospace Security Project
• Alyssa Goessler – Research Associate, Aerospace Security Project

About the Aerospace Security Project (ASP)

The ASP at CSIS focuses on the technological, budgetary, and policy challenges in the air and space domains. It explores innovative operational concepts for air and space forces and aims to promote responsible and sustainable use of space.

Foreword by Susan M. Gordon

As former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence, Susan M. Gordon emphasizes the growing threat to space systems and the importance of preparing for a contested space environment. She highlights the need for international cooperation and the development of norms to prevent conflict and ensure the continued use of space for peaceful purposes.